Here are our EPL picks for Friday 16 October 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Coventry City +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Tottenham Hotspur welcomes Coventry City, the contrast in recent form is stark. Spurs have struggled at home, recording no wins in their last five, while Coventry have been resilient on the road, managing two wins from their last five away outings. Tottenham’s lack of scoring—averaging just 0.6 goals and an xG of zero in their last five—paints a grim picture, especially when their defense has conceded over a goal per game. Meanwhile, Coventry has shown a spark, averaging 1.2 goals away and maintaining a solid xG in their last matches. With Spurs’ recent home struggles and Coventry's fighting spirit, the 0.75 handicap offers value. It’s a chance for Coventry to capitalize on Spurs’ vulnerabilities and potentially snatch at least a draw or even an upset, making this bet a compelling option in what could be an intriguing matchup.
Troyes vs RC Lens: RC Lens -1 Goal Handicap (+140)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Troyes prepares to host RC Lens, the numbers paint a concerning picture for the home side. They've struggled recently, boasting a dismal 1-0-4 record in their last five matches, and at home, they’ve averaged a paltry 0.8 goals while conceding a staggering 2.0. This trend continues with a shocking xG of 0, indicating a lack of offensive creativity. Meanwhile, Lens arrives with momentum and resilience. They’ve proven their mettle against Troyes, winning three of their last five encounters. Their ability to score, coupled with Troyes' defensive frailties, sets the stage for a potential rout. With Lens averaging 2.6 goals against in-form opponents, taking them at -1 seems like a savvy play. Expect Lens to capitalize on Troyes’ struggles, making this handicap a compelling wager.
Real Betis vs Barcelona: Real Betis +1 Goal Handicap (+130)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Real Betis gears up to host Barcelona, recent form suggests a compelling story for bettors. Betis is soaring at home, boasting a perfect five-game winning streak, where they’ve averaged two goals and conceded a mere 0.6. With an aggressive approach, they’ve been firing off an impressive 17.8 shots per match, showcasing their attacking prowess. On the flip side, while Barcelona has been dominant away, their historical struggles against Betis—especially in their last five encounters—could play a pivotal role. Betis has consistently found ways to challenge the Catalan giants, and this time, the home advantage could be the key. Given Betis’ solid defense combined with a relentless offense, betting on them to cover a one-goal handicap seems a savvy move. With Barcelona's recent form not as airtight as it appears, this clash could turn the tide in favor of the home side.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: Coventry City +1.25 Goal Handicap (-135)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The Spurs have faltered at home, managing a dismal 0-3-2 record in their last five, averaging just 0.6 goals while conceding 1.2. Meanwhile, Coventry has shown resilience, particularly away from home, with a more balanced performance of 2-0-3 recently, scoring 1.2 goals per game. Their defensive setup has also kept opponents’ xG down, indicating they can stifle Spurs' lack of attacking threat. Tottenham's recent struggles are underscored by their low shot conversion and a concerning xG profile that suggests they’re not creating quality chances. Betting on Coventry with a 1.25 handicap offers a savvy play; they’ve got momentum, while Spurs are reeling. Given these trends, Coventry appears more than capable of at least holding their own in this encounter.
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo: Mirassol Draw No Bet (-133)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Mirassol prepares to host Sao Paulo, recent form suggests they’re poised for a positive result. With a home record of 2-2-1 in their last five matches, Mirassol has shown resilience, scoring an average of 1.6 goals at home while conceding just 1.8. Their attacking stats are promising too, with an average of nearly 15 shots per game, indicating a willingness to push forward. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, enters with a shaky away record, and Mirassol's solid defense could frustrate them. The expected goals data reveals that while Mirassol may not be converting chances at a prolific rate recently, their shot volume suggests a breakthrough is imminent. With the Draw No Bet market, backing Mirassol feels like a safe play, especially given their home advantage and the fluctuating form of Sao Paulo. It’s a chance to capitalize on Mirassol’s momentum and home-ground energy.
Toulouse vs Troyes: Toulouse -1 Goal Handicap (+110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Toulouse prepares to host Troyes, the recent form and stats tell a compelling story favoring the home side. Despite a mixed bag in their last five matches, Toulouse has shown more resilience at home, managing to score an average of 1.4 goals while limiting opponents to 1.6. Their attacking stats are respectable, with an average of 17.4 shots per game. In contrast, Troyes has struggled mightily on the road, averaging just 0.6 goals per match and conceding a troubling 2.2. Their last five away games have yielded zero wins, and their lack of offensive firepower is glaring. With Toulouse boasting a solid history against Troyes—winning their last two encounters—betting on Toulouse to cover a -1 handicap seems a savvy choice. Given the current trajectories, they should secure a comfortable victory on their turf.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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