Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Geelong Cats -8.5, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Geelong Cats -8.5 (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Geelong Cats -8.5. That is a Spread bet. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Adelaide Crows -4.5 spreads_q2. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -3.5 spreads_q2. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -3.5 spreads_q4 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -3.5 spreads_q4. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs: Adelaide Crows -4.5 spreads_q3 (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Adelaide Crows -4.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -3.5 spreads_q3 (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Fremantle Dockers play Hawthorn Hawks in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Fremantle Dockers -3.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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