Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 6 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -9.5 spreads_q4, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -9.5 spreads_q4 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to this Sydney Swans versus Port Adelaide Power clash at the SCG, the numbers paint a clear picture. The Swans have been on fire at home, boasting an average margin of 27.6 points in their last five games at the SCG. Their offensive firepower is evident, averaging 100.8 points per game during this stretch. On the other hand, Port Adelaide has struggled on the road, with an average margin of -24 points in their last five away games. Considering Sydney's ability to dominate at home and Port Adelaide's road woes, it's no surprise the Swans are favored to cover the -9.5 spread in the fourth quarter. With their strong inside 50 presence and accurate goal kicking, the Swans are poised to snag a convincing win, making them a solid bet in this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Folks, when you look at the clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Fremantle Dockers at the iconic MCG, a juicy betting opportunity emerges in the 'Under 173.5' Total Points market. The Demons have been firing on all cylinders, averaging 106.2 points in their last five outings, but the Dockers aren't slouches either, holding opponents to just 65.8 points on average. Fremantle's disciplined defense has been rock-solid, conceding only 68.4 points per game on the road recently. With Melbourne's efficient attacking prowess meeting Fremantle's stingy backline, this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring grind. Expect both teams to lock horns fiercely, resulting in a total point tally that could fall short of that 173.5 mark. This bet on the 'Under' is a smart play considering the recent defensive strengths on display.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to this clash between the Western Bulldogs and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium, all signs point to the Bulldogs snagging a win. The Bulldogs have been on fire in their last 5 games, with an average margin of 5.8 and an impressive 87.4 points scored per game. They dominate in contested possessions, clearances, and inside 50s, showcasing their ability to control the game's tempo. In contrast, the Kangaroos have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of -17.8 in their last 5 away games. With the Bulldogs' strong home form and the Kangaroos' road woes, the smart money is on the Bulldogs to come out on top in this matchup. So, expect the Bulldogs to kick through the big sticks and secure the win against the Kangaroos.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers at Adelaide Oval. The data paints a fascinating picture here. The Crows have been a force at home, boasting an impressive average of 105.2 points for in their last five games. However, their defense has shown some vulnerability, conceding an average of 73.2 points. Meanwhile, the Tigers have struggled on the road, averaging just 61.6 points for and conceding 93.8 points in their last five outings. With Adelaide's potent attack and leaky defense facing Richmond's road woes, the Tigers at +13.5 look like a solid play in the Q4 spreads market. If the Tigers can contain Adelaide's scoring power, they might just cover the spread and snag a win. This game promises to be a thrilling battle of contrasting styles!
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers: Richmond Tigers 13.5 spreads_q2 (-125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this juicy matchup between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers. The Crows have been holding court at Adelaide Oval, averaging a solid 96.8 points per game over their last five home clashes. They've been relentless in attack, bagging an average of 14.4 goals per game during this stretch. However, their defense has shown some leaks, conceding an average of 69.4 points. On the flip side, the Tigers have been struggling on the road, scoring only 61.2 points per game away from home. Their defense has been leaky too, coughing up an average of 117.8 points in their last five away fixtures. With the Tigers boasting a +13.5 point spread, it seems like they have a fighting chance to keep things tight, especially if they can capitalize on the Crows' defensive vulnerabilities. So, backing the Tigers +13.5 could be a savvy move in this clash at Adelaide Oval.
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -9.5 spreads_q3 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Sydney Swans at -9.5 in the third quarter spread against Port Adelaide is a savvy play. The Swans have been on fire at home, boasting an impressive average margin of 27.6 points over their last 5 games at the SCG. Their offensive prowess is evident, racking up an average of 100.8 points per game during this stretch. On the flip side, Port Adelaide has struggled on the road, with an average points against of 90 in their last 5 away games. With the Swans' ability to generate inside 50s and shots on goal consistently, combined with Port Adelaide's defensive vulnerabilities away from home, Sydney looks poised to extend their lead comfortably by the third quarter. Expect the Swans to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and control the tempo to cover the spread.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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