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MLS predictions for Saturday, October 17: Under 3.5 goals in Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls

14 MLS matches on Saturday. The model's strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, a HIGH-confidence call. 1 more match has a HIGH-confidence pick.

By Javier Morales · Published Oct 16, 12:00 AM ET

Written with our model's data and an AI writing assistant, checked against our rules. Meet our writers

Charlotte FC at Philadelphia Union

Sat Oct 17, 2:30 PM ET
Our pick: Charlotte FC +1.25 (a split line: some results give back part of your stake)-105

HIGH — about a 6 in 10 chance by our numbers

As Philadelphia Union rides high on a five-game unbeaten streak at home, their dominance is palpable, but Charlotte FC is quietly becoming a formidable opponent.

Full Charlotte FC at Philadelphia Union preview →

St. Louis City SC at Minnesota United FC

Sat Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET
Our pick: Minnesota United FC 0 (they must win; if it ends level your stake comes back)-115

LEAN — about a 5 in 10 chance by our numbers

Full St. Louis City SC at Minnesota United FC preview →

Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC

Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC preview →

Chicago Fire at New England Revolution

Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Chicago Fire at New England Revolution · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Chicago Fire at New England Revolution preview →

Los Angeles FC at New York City FC

Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles FC at New York City FC · Total Goals Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Los Angeles FC at New York City FC preview →

Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls

Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
Top pick: Under 3.5 goals-114

HIGH — about a 7 in 10 chance by our numbers

As the New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC, we should expect a tightly contested affair with goals at a premium.

Full Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls preview →

D.C. United at Orlando City SC

Sat Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
D.C. United at Orlando City SC · Total Goals Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full D.C. United at Orlando City SC preview →

Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Austin FC

Sat Oct 17, 8:30 PM ET
Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Austin FC · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Austin FC preview →

FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo

Sat Oct 17, 8:30 PM ET
FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo · Total Goals Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo preview →

Real Salt Lake at Sporting Kansas City

Sat Oct 17, 8:30 PM ET
Real Salt Lake at Sporting Kansas City · Total Goals Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Real Salt Lake at Sporting Kansas City preview →

San Diego FC at LA Galaxy

Sat Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
San Diego FC at LA Galaxy · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full San Diego FC at LA Galaxy preview →

Colorado Rapids at Portland Timbers

Sat Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
Colorado Rapids at Portland Timbers · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Colorado Rapids at Portland Timbers preview →

Nashville SC at San Jose Earthquakes

Sat Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
Nashville SC at San Jose Earthquakes · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full Nashville SC at San Jose Earthquakes preview →

CF Montreal at Seattle Sounders FC

Sat Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
CF Montreal at Seattle Sounders FC · Spread Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
Full CF Montreal at Seattle Sounders FC preview →
How we pick these games

Our model looks at each team's recent form, injuries, rest and the price on offer, and works out how likely each result is. When its number says a bet is more likely to land than the price suggests, the bet makes our list. For each game we show the one main-line bet it likes most. HIGH means it lands about 6 or more times in 10 by our numbers. LEAN means about 4 to 6 times in 10. LONG-SHOT means less than 4 in 10: a bigger payout and a smaller chance. No pick is a sure thing.

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