On Sunday 1 November 2026, Renato Moicano takes on Tom Nolan in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Tom Nolan to Win, priced at +101 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Tom Nolan to Win (+101)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Tom Nolan needs to outsmart Renato Moicano and find a way to win this fight. Nolan has shown solid skills and his chances look good based on how he performs against fighters like Moicano. Both fighters are tough, but Nolan seems to have a slight advantage in how they handle pressure and keep going in tough spots. Moicano is skilled, but the fight could be really close. The biggest worry is that both fighters are durable, so it might turn into a long battle. Even so, Nolan has a good chance to come out on top tonight, making him a solid pick to win. It was priced at +101 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+177)
Odds correct at time of publishing
For this fight to be exciting, we need it to finish quickly, and that's likely with Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan. Moicano is known for his finishing ability, and both fighters have the skills to end the match early. The numbers suggest that we might see about one and a half rounds, which means there's a good chance this fight doesn't go the distance. However, there is a bit of a risk since both fighters are tough and capable of taking a hit. If they can withstand each other's strikes, it could stretch out longer. Still, the odds are in our favor for a quick finish, making this a solid pick for the night. It was priced at +177 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.70 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Renato Moicano: last five W-L-L-W-W, won the last fight, 3% of career wins came by knockout, 205 days since the last fight
- Tom Nolan: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 17% of career wins came by knockout, 142 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Renato Moicano v Tom Nolan. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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