On Saturday 24 October 2026, Nicolle Caliari takes on Iasmin Lucindo in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Iasmin Lucindo -3.5 on the Line, priced at -135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Iasmin Lucindo -3.5 on the Line (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Iasmin Lucindo to win by at least four points tonight, she needs to use her striking skills and keep the pressure on Nicolle Caliari. Iasmin has shown she can dominate her fights, and our numbers suggest she has a solid chance to come out on top. While her reach is a bit shorter, she's known for her ability to close the gap and land effective strikes. The main risk here is that both fighters are quite close in skill, which means Nicolle could surprise us if she fights smart. Still, Iasmin's recent form and fighting style should give her the upper hand. It looks promising for Iasmin to cover that spread and secure the win. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+235)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The odds for this fight between Nicolle Caliari and Iasmin Lucindo offer a nice payout at +235 if you bet on under 2.5 total rounds. Our numbers show that this match could end quickly, with an estimated total of about 1.5 rounds. That means there's a good chance we won't see all three rounds play out. Both fighters have strong finishing abilities, which makes it likely that one of them will score a knockout or submission before the fight goes the distance. The biggest risk here is that both fighters are competitive, and if they manage to engage in a back-and-forth battle, it could stretch longer than expected. However, the chance for an early finish is definitely on the table. It was priced at +235 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $33.50 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Iasmin Lucindo to Win (-345)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For Iasmin Lucindo to win this fight against Nicolle Caliari, she needs to use her striking skills effectively. Lucindo is rated as a strong favorite, which suggests that she has the advantage in this matchup. Her ability to land clean punches and control the fight pace will be key to her success. Caliari can be tough, but Lucindo's style fits well against her. The numbers show that Lucindo should have a good chance to come out on top, but a big risk is that Caliari could catch her off guard. Overall, it looks like a solid pick for Lucindo tonight. It was priced at -345 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Nicolle Caliari: last five W-L-L-W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 161 days since the last fight
  • Iasmin Lucindo: last five W-L-W-W-W, won the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 441 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Nicolle Caliari v Iasmin Lucindo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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