On Sunday 1 November 2026, Dakota Hope takes on Francis Marshall in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 2.5 Total Rounds, priced at +136 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+136)

Odds correct at time of publishing

For this fight, we need Dakota Hope and Francis Marshall to finish things early, with the total rounds under 2.5. Both fighters have styles that suggest they like to go for quick finishes, and our numbers show they could combine for just about one round. Hope is aggressive and looks for knockouts, while Marshall is skilled at grappling and can end fights on the ground. The risk here is that both are closely matched, which could lead to a more cautious approach. Still, their abilities make it likely we see a finish before the third round rolls around. It was priced at +136 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.60 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Francis Marshall to Win (-233)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Dakota Hope is a tough opponent, but Francis Marshall has a strong chance to win this fight. His skills as a striker give him an advantage, especially if he can keep the fight standing where he can land solid shots. Marshall's ability to control the pace and distance might be key here. While both fighters are competitive, Marshall is slightly younger, which can play a role in his stamina and speed. The risk is that Hope has the grit to push through tough situations, making this a close contest. However, given Marshall's skills and the good chance our numbers give him, he looks like a solid pick to win this fight. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Dakota Hope: last five L, lost the last fight, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 205 days since the last fight
  • Francis Marshall: last five W-W-L-W-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 184 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Dakota Hope v Francis Marshall. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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