On Friday 18 September 2026, Minnesota Lynx play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is New York Liberty +7.5 on the Line, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
New York Liberty +7.5 on the Line (-110)
Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing
The New York Liberty are facing off against the Minnesota Lynx, and this matchup looks pretty tight. The Lynx have a slight advantage with their recent scoring and rebounding, but the Liberty are not far behind and can definitely keep it close. They've traveled less than the Lynx, which could help them stay fresh in this game. That's why betting on the Liberty to cover the points at +7.5 seems like a smart choice. Our numbers suggest it's almost a coin flip, with the Lynx expected to win by about 4 points. However, the biggest risk here is that the Lynx have a little more overall success lately, making this a tricky one. Still, the Liberty should be in a good position to keep it competitive. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 184.5 Total Points (-233)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The Minnesota Lynx have been playing strong defense lately, which makes me think this game will have lower scoring. I'm picking the total points to be under 184.5. Our numbers suggest a combined score closer to 162.9, so that's a solid gap. The Lynx have a better net score difference, and they also have less travel distance, which can help keep their energy up. However, the New York Liberty are also a tough team, so there's a chance they could push the score higher than expected. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.30 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Jonquel Jones has been struggling a bit with her rebounding lately, averaging under her usual numbers. In the last few games, she's been getting just over seven rebounds, which is below what you'd expect from her. The Minnesota Lynx will be a tough matchup, as they've been playing strong defense and limiting opponents' second chances. Betting on Jonquel to grab under 8.5 rebounds makes sense here. The odds are decent, and it feels like a close call, but Jones could find it tough to rack up those boards against this team. Just remember, the Lynx might put up a strong fight, which could affect her totals. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
Leonie Fiebich has been showing some solid form lately, especially when it comes to grabbing rebounds. In her last few games, she's been averaging around two offensive rebounds, which is a bit higher than usual. With the Minnesota Lynx taking on the New York Liberty at home, I think she has a good shot at securing over 3.5 rebounds in this matchup. The Lynx will need her presence on the boards, especially since they've been a bit inconsistent on defense. The close nature of this game means both teams will be fighting hard, and that can lead to more missed shots and opportunities for rebounds. Just keep in mind that Fiebich has had a few games where she hasn't hit her usual numbers. Overall, though, this looks like a promising pick for her. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Breanna Stewart Under 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Breanna Stewart needs to score fewer points and grab fewer rebounds than 27.5 tonight against the Minnesota Lynx. She has been playing well, but her recent numbers show she's not hitting those marks consistently. In her last five games, she's making just a bit under her usual field goals, and her offensive rebounds are also lower than what we typically see from her. The Lynx will put up a strong defense, making it tough for Stewart to find her rhythm. Plus, with both teams having a close matchup, there's a chance that they will focus more on defense. The biggest risk is that Stewart could still break out and have a big game, but right now, it looks like she might stay under that total. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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