On Saturday 17 October 2026, Mike Malott takes on Joaquin Buckley in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Rounds, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 3.5 Total Rounds (+110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
In this matchup, Mike Malott and Joaquin Buckley are both exciting fighters known for their striking skills. Malott is a strong finisher, while Buckley has a knack for delivering powerful punches. With their styles, it seems likely that this fight won't go the distance. Our numbers suggest there's a good chance this fight wraps up before the fourth round. Both fighters are relatively young and durable, which usually means they can take a hit. However, their tendency to go for the finish makes it risky for this fight to see many rounds. Given how our model predicts a combined total of only about 1.6 rounds, betting on under 3.5 rounds looks promising. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Joaquin Buckley to Win (+120)
Odds correct at time of publishing
For Joaquin Buckley to win his fight against Mike Malott, he needs to find his rhythm and land some solid strikes. Buckley's striking style has been impressive, and he has a good chance to keep Malott at bay with his powerful hits. The risk here is that Malott could surprise him with a strong game plan, making this fight more competitive. Still, Buckley's experience and striking ability make him a solid pick for this matchup. It was priced at +120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
The tale of the tape:
- Joaquin Buckley: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 156 days since the last fight
- Mike Malott: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 18% of career wins came by knockout, 177 days since the last fight
That is how our model reads Mike Malott v Joaquin Buckley. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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