Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Picks, October 21, 2026

The Houston Rockets struggle with rebounds and defensive pressure, which could give Dallas opportunities to score. Zaccharie Risacher has been up and down lately, and with the Mavericks allowing fewer threes, he might not get as many chances to shine. The Rockets also let their opponents take a lot of three-point shots, so the flow of the game could dictate how much he gets involved. Betting on him to score under 9.5 points and assists feels like a solid choice. The risk here is that the game could be close, and if Risacher finds a groove, he might surprise us. Still, with how both teams play, it seems like a good time to back the under.

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks: Jabari Smith Jr Over 11.5 Points (-164)

Jabari Smith Jr. has been getting a lot of chances to score lately, and he's up against a Dallas Mavericks team that struggles to stop players from putting points on the board. The Mavericks allow a good number of three-point attempts and also give up a lot of rebounds, which creates opportunities for Smith to grab second-chance points. With the Rockets playing at home, he should be able to find his rhythm. While our numbers see this bet as a strong favorite, the Mavericks do have a decent defense, which means this game could be closer than expected. Still, Jabari's recent form and the chances he gets make the over on 11.5 points a solid pick.

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving Over 17.5 Points (-172)

The odds for Kyrie Irving to score over 17.5 points look promising. He's been doing well, especially at home, where he averages more points than on the road. Plus, the Houston Rockets tend to let opponents score a lot, which could help Kyrie find the basket more easily. However, keep in mind that both teams can be pretty close in talent, so it might be a tight matchup. The Rockets allow a fair number of rebounds and three-point shots, which means Kyrie could have plenty of chances to score. Overall, our numbers really like this pick, but there's always a chance things might not go as planned.

That is everything our model likes in this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.