On Sunday 11 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -208 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stakes are high and the momentum is in the home side's favor. With a solid home record of 2 wins in their last 5 matches, they've managed to score an impressive average of 1.8 goals per game at Goodison Park, while limiting their opponents to just 1.6. Everton's recent form also showcases an ability to grind out results, highlighted by their xG numbers that suggest they’ve been creating chances, despite some underwhelming stats. Chelsea, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, especially away from home, where they’ve averaged just 1.2 goals while conceding 2 per game. The Blues' struggles to find the back of the net combined with Everton's defensive resilience makes the 0.75 handicap a tantalizing opportunity. With Everton hungry for points and Chelsea's hit-or-miss performances, backing the Toffees could yield a profitable return.
Everton vs Chelsea: Everton Moneyline (+200)
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Everton hosts Chelsea, there's a compelling case for the Toffees to emerge victorious. They've displayed solid form at home, averaging 1.8 goals over their last five matches, while conceding a mere 1.6. This defensive resilience has translated into a home record of 2-2-1, suggesting they're tough to break down at Goodison Park. On the flip side, Chelsea's away struggles are evident; they've managed just 1.2 goals per game lately, facing a stark 2.0 average from opponents. With Everton's defense tightening and their attack gaining momentum, they could exploit Chelsea's vulnerabilities. Moreover, while recent head-to-head matchups lean slightly towards Chelsea, Everton's current home advantage and Chelsea's inconsistency make this a ripe opportunity for an upset. Given the odds, backing Everton is not just a gamble; it's a shrewd play based on recent trends and form.
That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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