Here are our Tennis picks for Sunday 4 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Maria Sakkari to win the match, priced at +292 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Maria Sakkari vs Elina Svitolina: Maria Sakkari to win the match (+292)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Maria Sakkari faces Elina Svitolina at China Open on Monday 5 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Maria Sakkari wins the match. It was priced at +292 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $39.20 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Sakkari's recent form shows a 60% win rate over her last five matches, indicating solid momentum. While specific serve stats are not provided, Sakkari's overall performance suggests she can capitalize on Svitolina’s vulnerabilities. Svitolina has struggled with her first serve, winning just 60.9% of points, and her break point save rate stands at 37.5%. In contrast, Sakkari's competitive win rates and potential to break serve make her a strong contender on hard courts. Given the context of the match, Sakkari's recent form and ability to exploit Svitolina's serve inefficiencies make her the value pick, especially at these odds. This statistical backing supports the notion that Sakkari can outperform expectations in this matchup.

Karolina Muchova vs Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova to win the match (+322)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Karolina Muchova faces Liudmila Samsonova at China Open on Sunday 4 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Liudmila Samsonova wins the match. It was priced at +322 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $42.20 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Both players have a recent win rate of 60% over their last five matches, indicating they are in comparable form. However, Samsonova's overall performance metrics suggest she has a solid foundation on hard courts, particularly in pressure situations. Analyzing serve metrics, if we consider typical patterns where she has historically excelled, her ability to win first-serve points and save break points should give her a critical advantage. Additionally, her experience at this level may help her navigate high-pressure points better than Muchova. Given the odds and the form, Samsonova's potential to outperform statistical expectations makes her the value pick in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article