Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 2 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Elise Mertens to win the match, priced at -120 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens: Elise Mertens to win the match (-120)

Odds available at hardrockbet at time of publishing

Katie Volynets faces Elise Mertens at China Open on Saturday 3 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elise Mertens wins the match. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Mertens showcases superior recent form, winning 60% of her last ten matches and demonstrating effective serving on hard courts. In her last five matches, her opponents have averaged a 63.8% first-serve percentage and 68.1% points won on serve, indicating a challenging return game for Volynets. Conversely, Mertens's solid serve and consistent pressure points are likely to capitalize on Volynets's struggles, evidenced by her opponent’s high first-point win rate of 86.7%. Furthermore, Mertens's ability to save break points (66.7%) adds to her profile as a resilient competitor.

Maria Sakkari vs Storm Hunter: Maria Sakkari to win the match (-238)

Odds available at hardrockbet at time of publishing

Maria Sakkari faces Storm Hunter at China Open on Saturday 3 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Maria Sakkari wins the match. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Maria Sakkari is a strong pick at 1.42 against Storm Hunter, supported by several predictive stats. Sakkari’s recent form shows a 60% win rate over her last five matches, indicating she is playing competitively. In contrast, Hunter's performance metrics suggest vulnerability, particularly against Sakkari's aggressive play style. Sakkari's serve effectiveness is crucial; while specific serve percentages are not provided, her overall game shows resilience under pressure, which is vital in hard court conditions. Hunter’s recent stats depict a reliance on her opponent’s errors, with a lower first and second serve points won (73.5% and 54.2% respectively), which Sakkari can exploit. Additionally, Hunter’s lower break point save percentage of 66.7% further emphasizes her struggles when facing pressure. With Sakkari's superior overall form and ability to capitalize on Hunter’s weaknesses, she presents solid value.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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