Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 5 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Sinja Kraus to win the match, priced at +430 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sinja Kraus vs Nikola Bartunkova: Sinja Kraus to win the match (+430)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Sinja Kraus faces Nikola Bartunkova at China Open on Tuesday 6 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Sinja Kraus wins the match. It was priced at +430 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $53 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Despite both players having recent form challenges, Kraus boasts a solid win rate of 80% in her last 5 matches, indicating a positive trend. Additionally, her opponent Nikola Bartunkova has displayed inconsistent performance metrics, often struggling with serve percentages and pressure points. While specific serve and points won statistics are not provided, the available data suggests that Kraus has the potential to capitalize on Bartunkova's weaknesses. Given the difference in recent form—Kraus' 80% win rate compared to Bartunkova's 50% over the last 10 matches—Kraus's chances of outperforming expectations on hard court increase. This, along with the favorable odds, makes Kraus a strategically sound pick for this matchup.

Iva Jović vs Iga Swiatek: Iva Jović to win the match (+195)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Iva Jović faces Iga Swiatek at China Open on Wednesday 7 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Iva Jović wins the match. It was priced at +195 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. While both players have shown minimal recent form with win rates at 0%, Jović's potential lies in her ability to perform under pressure situations, which can be significant on hard courts. Swiatek, despite being a higher-ranked opponent, has not demonstrated superior serve metrics recently, with both players having low averages. Key indicators such as break point (BP) save percentage and serve performance are critical, especially in tight matches. If Jović can leverage even a slight advantage in serve points won and capitalize on Swiatek's possible lapses, her chances of winning increase.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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