Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 5 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Qinwen Zheng to win the match, priced at -143 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen Zheng: Qinwen Zheng to win the match (-143)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Marie Bouzkova faces Qinwen Zheng at China Open on Monday 5 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Qinwen Zheng wins the match. It was priced at -143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.00 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. For the matchup between Marie Bouzkova and Qinwen Zheng at the China Open, Qinwen Zheng presents value at 1.7. Zheng boasts an impressive win rate of 80% over her last five matches, reflecting strong current form. In contrast, Bouzkova's recent performance indicates vulnerability, with a lower win rate and lack of pressure point success. While specific serve stats are not provided, Zheng's overall form suggests superior efficiency on critical points, particularly in hard-court conditions where she has demonstrated resilience. Given Zheng's solid recent form and Bouzkova's recent struggles, along with the context of hard courts favoring her style, Zheng is the favorable pick for this encounter.

Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot: Valentin Vacherot to win the match (+179)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Jiri Lehecka faces Valentin Vacherot at Japan Open on Monday 5 October 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Valentin Vacherot wins the match. It was priced at +179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.90 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Valentin Vacherot presents strong value at 2.79 against Jiri Lehecka. Vacherot’s recent form shows an impressive win rate of 80% over his last five matches, significantly outperforming Lehecka's overall performance. His first serve percentage stands at 62.7%, with a solid 74.1% of first-serve points won, compared to Lehecka’s weaker metrics. The latter has faced an opponent average of 61.5% first serves and 83.3% first points won, indicating vulnerability in return games. Vacherot's ace rate of 8.7% and low double fault rate (3.5%) further enhance his serving reliability. With Vacherot's strong recent form and superior serve metrics, he is the value side in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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