On Friday 23 October 2026, Athletic Bilbao play Getafe in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Getafe +1 Goal Handicap, priced at -130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Athletic Bilbao welcomes Getafe, the dynamics of recent form suggest that backing Getafe with a one-goal handicap could be wise. Bilbao's home form has been shaky, recording just one win in their last five outings, and they’ve struggled to find the net, averaging only 1.2 goals at home. Their xG stats show the same trend, hinting at missed opportunities. On the other hand, Getafe may be coming off a tough spell, but they’ve been resilient against Bilbao in their last encounters, posting a favorable 2-1-2 record. Despite averaging just 0.6 goals recently, their defense has been sturdy enough to keep opponents at bay. With Bilbao's home defense also faltering, this match feels primed for Getafe to at least earn a draw, if not snatch a win. Taking Getafe with a one-goal cushion is a shrewd play in this context.
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe: Under 1.5 Total Goals (+190)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Athletic Bilbao prepares to host Getafe, don’t expect a goal-fest on Sunday. Both teams have been struggling to find the back of the net lately. Bilbao's last five matches have seen them average just one goal, while conceding a mere 0.8, showcasing a defensive solidity that’s hard to break down. Their xG figures tell a similar tale—essentially flatlining at zero over recent outings. Getafe, too, has been starved for goals, averaging just 0.6 in their last five, with away matches yielding a dismal tally of zero goals scored. With both sides exhibiting cautious tactics and low-scoring games in their recent matchups, betting on Under 1.5 goals seems prudent. Given their histories against each other—2-1-2 in the last five encounters—this clash promises to be tight. Expect a grind rather than an offensive showcase.
That is how our model reads Athletic Bilbao v Getafe. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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