Today's Top Serie A Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday 10/12: Stat Projections & Picks

As Coventry City gears up to face Newcastle United, all eyes should be on Milan van Ewijk for an intriguing player prop bet on Over 0.5 shots on target. While his recent stats show a quiet spell with no shots hitting the target in his last five outings, there’s a compelling reason to expect a change. Playing at home, van Ewijk’s average creeps up to 0.4 shots per game, and with Coventry pressing against a formidable Newcastle side, he’ll likely find opportunities to make his mark. This could be the perfect storm for van Ewijk to break his duck, as he’ll be looking to seize every chance in front of the home crowd. With the potential for a spirited performance, betting on Over 0.5 shots on target feels like a smart play.

Jeremy Toljan (Levante) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+650)

As Levante prepares to host Sevilla, all eyes should be on Jeremy Toljan, particularly for the shots on target market. While his recent numbers show a lack of shots on target, his role in a home match against a formidable opponent opens up opportunities. Levante will look to exploit Sevilla’s defense, and with Toljan expected to push forward, he could find himself in positions to test the keeper. Remember, even if he hasn’t registered a shot on target lately, players often rise to the occasion in crucial matchups, especially at home. Given that he’s been more involved in attacking phases, this could be the game where he breaks free. Sometimes, it's all about the right moment, and Toljan could find that against Sevilla.

Thierry Correia (Venezia) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+4000)

As the Serie A clash between Atalanta and Venezia approaches, keep an eye on Thierry Correia for an intriguing anytime goalscorer bet. While his recent goal-scoring record may not jump off the page—averaging zero goals in his last five outings—there’s a fascinating dynamic at play here. Atalanta’s attacking prowess often puts immense pressure on their opponents, creating openings even for defenders. Correia, despite his modest average of just one shot per game, could capitalize on a defensive lapse. Playing away at a venue like Atalanta's Gewiss Stadium, Venezia will likely sit back, allowing Correia to venture forward during counterattacks. His ability to push into the box could just lead to an unexpected chance. In a match filled with attacking intent, sometimes it's the unsung heroes who find themselves in the right place at the right time. A sprinkle on Correia to score might just pay off handsomely.

That is the model's read on today's Serie A card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.