On Friday 28 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Washington Mystics in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 167 Total Points, priced at -108 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Over 167 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at LowVig at time of publishing
The odds for the total points in the game between the Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics is set at 167, which feels a bit low given how both teams score. The Mercury have had some ups and downs this season, winning 4 of their last 10, but they allow a lot of three-point attempts and give up plenty of rebounds. On the flip side, the Mystics are in better form, winning 7 of their last 10, and they also let opponents take a fair number of threes. Our numbers suggest that the combined score could reach around 170.9, which is higher than the betting line. The main risk here is how closely matched these teams are, so it might be a nail-biter. But with both teams showing they can score, this could be a fun one to watch! It was priced at -108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.30 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +4 on the Line (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The Phoenix Mercury need to keep the game close and ideally win by 4 points or more tonight. They've struggled lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, but they're at home and can take advantage of that. The Washington Mystics have been playing well, winning 7 of their last 10, but they give up a decent number of rebounds, which Phoenix can capitalize on. The most concrete risk is that Phoenix has not been great this season, so it could be tough for them to pull off the win. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
Alyssa Thomas has been pretty solid lately, grabbing between 5 and 16 rebounds in her last 10 games, so betting on her to get over 8.5 seems like a fair shot. The Phoenix Mercury often struggle with rebounding, giving up 35.6 boards a game, which could give Thomas more chances to snag those rebounds. Meanwhile, the Washington Mystics have been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10, which means they might keep the game competitive. The main risk is that both teams have been close in recent matchups, so it could go either way. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kiki Iriafen Over 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (+110)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
Kiki Iriafen has been a mixed bag lately, with her rebounds and assists numbers bouncing around quite a bit. The good news is that the Phoenix Mercury give up quite a few rebounds each game, which could help Kiki rack up her stats. Plus, the Mystics have been winning games, so Kiki might need to step up and contribute more. However, there's a chance she could struggle to get involved. Overall, this bet feels like a good shot, but it's definitely not a sure thing. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kelsey Plum Under 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Kelsey Plum has been a bit up and down lately, with her points, rebounds, and assists bouncing between low and high numbers. In her last ten games, she has scored anywhere from 1 to 5 three-pointers and has had games where she only recorded a couple of assists. With Phoenix Mercury allowing a lot of rebounds and threes, they could limit her chances to rack up those stats. We're going with under 18.5 for Kelsey Plum's combined points, rebounds, and assists. The Washington Mystics have been strong lately, winning 7 out of their last 10 games, and that could mean less playing time for Plum if the game gets away from her team. The biggest risk here is that she could get a hot shooting night, but she has shown some inconsistency lately. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Washington Mystics. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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