On Sunday 30 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Toronto Tempo in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 175.5 Total Points, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 175.5 Total Points (+110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds at +115 for under 175.5 points look inviting because our numbers suggest a total around 172.8, making this a competitive pick. Phoenix Mercury have struggled lately, winning just 3 of their last 10 games, and they allow quite a few rebounds and three-point attempts. Toronto Tempo is also having a tough time, winning only 1 of their last 10 games. The close stats mean this could be a tight game. However, the risk is that both teams have been inconsistent in their scoring lately. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Toronto Tempo +13.5 on the Line (-233)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
For Toronto Tempo to cover a 13.5 point spread, they need to keep the game close tonight. Even though they've had a rough stretch, winning just 1 of their last 10 games, the Mercury have also struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10. Phoenix allows a lot of threes and rebounds, which could give Toronto some chances to score. It's a tough matchup, but with both teams having issues, Toronto could sneak in under the spread. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Laura Juskaite Under 14.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Laura Juskaite has struggled lately, and that makes this bet interesting. She plays for the Toronto Tempo, who have only won 1 out of their last 10 games. The Phoenix Mercury give up a lot of rebounds, but they also force their opponents into tough shots, which can limit points and assists. Juskaite's recent form shows she might have a tough time hitting over 14.5 points and assists. With both teams having trouble scoring and the Mercury allowing a lot of three-point attempts, this could lead to a low-scoring game. The biggest risk here is how close the two teams are in overall performance; either could surprise. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Natasha Mack Under 7.5 Rebounds (+109)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Tonight, we need Natasha Mack to grab fewer than 8 rebounds against the Phoenix Mercury. The Mercury have been giving up a lot of rebounds lately, averaging around 35.6 a game. However, Mack has been a bit inconsistent, pulling in anywhere from 0 to 4 rebounds in her last 10 games. On top of that, the Mercury often allow opponents to shoot a lot of threes, which can lead to long rebounds that might not come her way. Both teams are struggling, with the Mercury winning just 2 of their last 10 games and the Tempo only winning 1. This matchup is pretty close, so there's always a chance Mack could surprise us, but the signs point to her staying under that 7.5 mark tonight. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Isabelle Harrison Under 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-111)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Isabelle Harrison needs to score points, grab rebounds, and dish out assists tonight for the total to go under 24.5. The Mercury have struggled lately, winning only 2 of their last 10 games. They also give up a lot of rebounds, allowing opponents to grab 35.6 per game. This could limit Harrison's opportunities to rack up numbers. On the other hand, the Tempo have had a tough time too, winning just 1 of their last 10 games and often falling behind by nearly 10 points in games. This means they might not be in a position to assist Harrison much. The risk is that with both teams struggling, the game could be close, which might help boost Harrison's stats. Still, the numbers suggest this bet has a good chance of hitting. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Toronto Tempo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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