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Model picks & player props
Colorado Avalanche
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:52PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Wed 7 Jan 2026, 12:00AM
5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline +100

The model graded 5 markets for Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 7 Jan 2026, 12:00AM at Benchmark International Arena.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.1%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Tampa Bay Lightning Lean58% chance +100
Moneyline Lean57% chance —
Spread High75% chance —
Puck Lines High98% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
+100
+ 4 more markets
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All 5 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado AvalancheMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay LightningPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Colorado Avalanche

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Pontus Holmberg.
FactorThis fixture
Availability1 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineTampa Bay Lightning +1.5No line posted

Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 4 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent results

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 games; Colorado Avalanche have won 1 of their last 5.

Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway
Colorado Avalanche — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2VGKAway
L3–5VGKAway
L1–3VGKHome
L2–4VGKHome
W4–3MINHome

Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Tampa Bay Lightning won 1, Colorado Avalanche won 0.

DateTampa Bay LightningColorado AvalancheWinner
Jan 742Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

1 player is listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Tampa Bay Lightning playing Colorado Avalanche. Featuring picks like NA props. Analysis includes same game parlay, SGP picks, NHL parlay odds, hockey parlay.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche : Tampa Bay Lightning +4.5 (-5000)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Tampa Bay Lightning with a spread of 4.5 is chosen based on the comparative team performance data and model insights. The Lightning's overall record in the last five games is slightly better than the Avalanche's (3-2 vs. 2-3), indicating their superior recent form. Furthermore, the Lightning has shown a strong ability to score with an average of 1.6 goals per game, compared to the Avalanche's 1.2. Additionally, the Lightning has been winning more against the Avalanche specifically, with a 3-2 record in their last five encounters. In terms of defensive stats, the Lightning has shown resilience, with lower average shots against (26.2 vs. 29). All these factors, combined with the model's prediction, suggest the Lightning has a higher likelihood of not just winning, but covering the 4.5 goal spread.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Avalanche vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Avalanche. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 7 January 2026 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Tampa Bay Lightning 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
7 Jan 2026Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning4–2Tampa Bay Lightning
Today's selected board

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