MLB player props today: our 6 best prop picks for August 19, 2026

As the Rockies prepare to face the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Kyle Freeland's strikeout count. Historically, Freeland has struggled against the Dodgers' lineup, which thrives on contact hitting and patience at the plate. Los Angeles ranks among the league leaders in fewest strikeouts, making it a tough matchup for any pitcher, particularly one like Freeland, who typically doesn’t light up the strikeout column. In his last few outings, Freeland has averaged just over two strikeouts per game against teams with similar offensive profiles. With the Rockies' home park favoring hitters and the Dodgers' batting prowess, expecting Freeland to hit the over on 3.5 strikeouts feels like a tall order. Given recent trends and the Dodgers' ability to make contact, betting the under seems like the prudent call here.

Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 Hits (-123)

As the Brewers and Mariners square off, keep a keen eye on Cal Raleigh's batting performance. Though Raleigh has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s facing a Brewers pitching staff that thrives on limiting hits, especially at home. Milwaukee's pitchers have been particularly effective against right-handed batters, and with the likes of Corbin Burnes poised to take the mound, Raleigh's chances of finding success diminish. Digging deeper, Raleigh has struggled recently, batting below.200 over his last ten games. The Brewers’ defense also ranks among the league’s best in terms of fielding percentage, making it even tougher for any balls in play to sneak through. Given these trends and the Brewers' home advantage, betting on Raleigh to stay under 0.5 hits feels like a calculated play. With the odds leaning toward him not getting a hit, this matchup could very well keep him off the basepaths tonight.

Robert Stock (NYM) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+101)

As the Mets host the Padres, all eyes will be on Robert Stock, but a closer look suggests a strikeout total lower than the line set at 3.5. Stock has shown flashes of brilliance, yet he often struggles against disciplined lineups like San Diego's. The Padres' offense is one of the toughest to punch out, boasting a patient approach that leads to fewer swings and misses. Additionally, Stock's recent outings indicate a trend of underwhelming strikeout performances, averaging just over two strikeouts in his last few starts. With a model predicting just 2.26 strikeouts, it’s clear that even the analytics favor the under. Given the Padres’ knack for making contact and the Mets' overall inconsistency, taking the under on Stock’s strikeouts feels like the prudent play in this matchup. Don't be surprised if this one stays under the threshold as both teams battle for key runs rather than whiffs.

Sal Stewart (CIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-156)

As the Reds gear up to face the Cardinals, all eyes will be on rookie Sal Stewart, especially with the line set at 1.5 total bases. It's worth noting that while Stewart has shown flashes of promise, he’s been struggling against left-handed pitching, and with St. Louis sending a southpaw to the mound, those challenges are likely to be amplified. The Cardinals’ bullpen has also been solid, particularly against right-handed hitters, which doesn't bode well for Stewart’s chances of racking up hits. Consider the recent trend: in his last few games, Stewart has been held to limited production, not crossing that 1.5 threshold. With the pressure mounting in a crucial divisional matchup, it’s plausible that the rookie experiences a tough outing. Pair that with a Cardinals' pitching staff that seems to have found its groove, and taking the under feels like a savvy move.

Brock Rodden Under 0.5 Hits (-135)

As the Brewers host the Mariners, all eyes will be on rookie sensation Brock Rodden. However, betting the under on his hits seems like a savvy move. With the Brewers’ pitching staff boasting a 3.45 ERA at home, they’ve been particularly tough to crack, showcasing their elite ability to neutralize opposing batters. Rodden, despite his potential, has struggled to make consistent contact against elite arms. He’s found himself facing pitchers who can exploit his weaknesses, especially against teams like Milwaukee that thrive in high-pressure situations. With an implied probability of 57.5% on the under for his hits, and a model prediction suggesting he’ll struggle to reach even one hit, it feels like an opportune moment to fade his production. In a game where the Brewers will be looking to stifle the Mariners’ offense, Rodden might just find himself on the wrong end of this matchup.

Max Scherzer (WSN) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays, all eyes will be on Max Scherzer, but I’m leaning towards the 'Under 3.5' strikeouts for the veteran ace. Scherzer, despite his illustrious career, has shown signs of wear lately, consistently struggling to find the strike zone against aggressive lineups, especially one as potent as Toronto’s. The Blue Jays have been making solid contact, evidenced by their impressive.260 team batting average. The recent trends indicate they are less prone to swinging and missing, which could hinder Scherzer’s chances of racking up the K's. In fact, with my model suggesting he’ll strike out around 2.25 batters, the under looks appealing. Given the Rays' potent offense and Scherzer’s pitch count likely being managed, expecting him to exceed that 3.5 mark feels like a stretch. Betting the under could just be the right play as this matchup unfolds.

That is the whole read. Every prop above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.