Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks (Breanna Stewart Key Factor): Smart Betting Angles

The Minnesota Lynx are scoring a strong 91.3 points a game lately, but they also have a solid defense that can hold teams back. The New York Liberty have faced one of the toughest schedules this season, which makes their scoring numbers a bit lower. With both teams showing some good defensive plays, the combined score is likely to stay under 171.5 points. The biggest risk here is that New York has been playing well too, winning four of their last six games. Overall, it feels like there's a good chance this pick will hit. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Breanna Stewart Under 21.5 Points (-110)

Betting on Breanna Stewart to score under 21.5 points at -108 seems like a solid choice. The Minnesota Lynx are in great form, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 91.3 points a game. In contrast, the New York Liberty have had a tougher schedule, facing teams with a combined winning record. This could limit scoring opportunities for Stewart, especially since she tends to score a bit less when playing away from home. One thing to consider is that while Stewart is a strong player, she averages about 8.3 rebounds at away games, which shows she might focus more on assisting and rebounding rather than just scoring. With the Lynx's strong defense and Stewart's away numbers, it looks like a good chance for her to stay under that point total. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonquel Jones Under 24.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)

Jonquel Jones has been a big part of the New York Liberty's success, but she might struggle in this game. The Minnesota Lynx have been strong lately, winning 6 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 91 points a game in their last few outings. This means they can put pressure on the Liberty, making it harder for Jones to rack up points and rebounds. While the numbers suggest a good chance for Jones to go under 24.5 combined points and rebounds, there's a real risk here. The Lynx defense could really challenge her, especially since they have been working hard to limit their opponents' scoring. With both teams on a similar winning path lately, it might be a close one, but betting on Jones to stay below that mark feels solid. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Pauline Astier Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (+111)

The Minnesota Lynx are on a hot streak, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive 91.3 points per game in 2026. They've shown they know how to create offense, but when it comes to three-pointers, it looks like Pauline Astier might struggle today. She's averaging just 9 points at night, which doesn't give her a lot of room for long shots. The New York Liberty have faced a tough schedule recently, and Astier's chances of hitting a three-pointer are slim. With the Lynx's strong defensive form, it's a good bet that she'll stay under 0.5 three-pointers made. The matchup is close, but Astier's numbers don't support a big shooting night. It was priced at +111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.10 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Minnesota Lynx v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.