On Friday 23 October 2026, Liverpool play Arsenal in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Liverpool +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -204 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Arsenal, recent form presents an intriguing story. The Reds have had a mixed bag at Anfield lately, managing just a 1-3-1 record against their rivals in the last five encounters. However, their overall home performance holds promise, boasting an average of 14 shots per game, hinting at their attacking potential. Arsenal, while currently enjoying a solid away run (4-0-1), tends to struggle against top-tier teams, and their expected goals (xG) stats suggest they’re not dominating matches as one might think. With Liverpool averaging only one goal per game in their last five, the stage is set for a low-scoring affair. The 0.75 handicap offers a cushion that could see a narrow Liverpool win, especially as they aim to reclaim their home dominance. This matchup promises drama, and Liverpool may just edge it at Anfield.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: Liverpool Moneyline (+220)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Arsenal, recent form tells a compelling story. While Liverpool has been inconsistent at Anfield, their last five home matches show they average a solid 14.4 shots, which indicates they're creating chances, albeit struggling to convert, with just 0.8 goals per game. On the flip side, Arsenal has been impressive away, racking up 1.2 goals in their last five, but their defense has been tested, conceding 0.8 goals per match. With Liverpool's home advantage and their pressing game likely to disrupt Arsenal's rhythm, the odds of Liverpool taking the win at 3.2 could be worth a closer look. Despite recent head-to-head records, this is a match where Liverpool could turn the tide, especially with a fire to regain their home fortress. Expect a tense battle, but Liverpool's capacity to create chances and their need for a statement win could tilt the match in their favor.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Arsenal. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article