On Thursday 1 October 2026, Juventus play Lazio in Serie A. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Lazio +1 Goal Handicap, priced at -149 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Juventus vs Lazio: Lazio +1 Goal Handicap (-149)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Juventus hosts Lazio this Sunday, the stage is set for an intriguing clash. While Juve's home advantage is notable, they’ve struggled to find their rhythm lately, with a modest record of 3-1-1 in their last five home matches. Lazio, on the other hand, arrives with a formidable four-game winning streak, showcasing their attacking prowess with an average of 1.6 goals per game recently while conceding just 0.6. Juventus has scored a mere 1.2 goals on home turf, which pales in comparison to Lazio's consistent away form. The xG numbers reflect a similar narrative—Lazio’s defense has been tighter, allowing just 0.6 xG to opponents. With Juventus winning only once in their last five meetings against Lazio, the odds favor the visitors here. Betting on Lazio with a +1 handicap offers promising value as they look to capitalize on Juve's vulnerabilities.

Juventus vs Lazio: Lazio Draw No Bet (+285)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Juventus prepares to host Lazio, the recent form of both teams tells a compelling story. While Juventus boasts a decent home record, their recent performances have been shaky, highlighted by a modest 1.2 goals per game at home. In contrast, Lazio arrives on a four-game winning streak, displaying a stronger offensive edge with 1.4 goals per game away. Juventus has struggled against Lazio in their last five encounters, managing just one win, while Lazio has consistently found ways to score. The Expected Goals (xG) data reveals that both sides are creating chances, but Lazio's defense has been more resolute, conceding only 0.6 goals in their last five matches. Betting on Lazio in the Draw No Bet market feels promising here, especially given their upward trajectory compared to Juventus’s recent dips. With Lazio's confidence and form, they look well-equipped to secure at least a draw, if not a win.

That is how our model reads Juventus v Lazio. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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