On Saturday 1 August 2026, Carlton Blues play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -526 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to goal-scoring threats, Harry McKay of the Carlton Blues stands out like a beacon in the night sky. Looking at his recent form, McKay has been a consistent force on his home turf, averaging a goal per game over the last five matches. Facing the Brisbane Lions, a team he has historically found success against, McKay's average of 3.5 goals in the last five matchups against them bodes well for his scoring potential. With an impressive 84.0% implied probability to score over 0.5 goals in this upcoming game, McKay's knack for finding the big sticks is undeniable. His ability to impact the game with an average of 4.8 score involvements and 2.8 shots at goal per home game further solidifies his position as a key offensive weapon for the Blues. Betting on McKay to snag at least one goal seems like a no-brainer given his recent performances and historical success against the Lions.
Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to banking on goal-scoring prowess, Charlie Cameron is a hot ticket worth backing. The Brisbane Lions' dynamo has been a scoring machine in his last five away games, averaging a tidy 1.8 goals per game. With a stellar 70.0% goal accuracy and a penchant for getting involved in the Lions' scoring plays (5.2 score involvements on average), Cameron is a constant threat to hit the scoreboard. Facing Carlton, a team against whom he has bagged an average of 3.3 goals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Cameron to continue his goal-scoring spree. With a solid 2.2 goals per game across all recent matches and a flawless 15-game goal-scoring streak, backing Cameron to snag over 0.5 goals in this clash at Marvel Stadium is a savvy move backed by his red-hot form.
Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 13.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking ahead to the clash between Carlton Blues and Brisbane Lions, all eyes are on Blake Acres to shine brightly on his home turf at Marvel Stadium. With an impressive average of 20 disposals over his last five home games, Acres has been a midfield maestro, consistently delivering impactful plays for the Blues. His recent form boasts a stellar 100% hit rate in exceeding 13.5 disposals, painting a picture of reliability and consistency. Against Brisbane, he's elevated his game even further, averaging 24 disposals in their previous encounters. Acres' ability to find space, create opportunities, and maintain high disposal efficiency makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 13.5 line once again. Backed by his recent streaks and the historical data against the Lions, Acres is poised to snag this bet and continue his dominance in the midfield battle.
That is how our model reads Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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