Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 6 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys: Madison Keys to win the match, priced at +128 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys: Madison Keys to win the match (+128)
Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing
Marta Kostyuk faces Madison Keys at Canadian Open on Thursday 6 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Madison Keys wins the match. It was priced at +128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Madison Keys presents significant value at 2.28 against Marta Kostyuk, backed by strong recent form and serve performance metrics. In her last five matches, Keys has a 60% win rate, demonstrating resilience in pressure situations. Her serve statistics on hard courts are notably impressive, with a first-serve percentage of 70.2%, winning 68.6% of first-serve points and 49.7% of second-serve points. Additionally, she excels in crucial moments, boasting a 79.5% break point save rate, highlighting her ability to fend off her opponent’s pressure. Conversely, Kostyuk has struggled, particularly in handling pressure and securing points on her serve, which diminishes her competitiveness against a player of Keys' caliber.
Anna Kalinskaya vs Diana Shnaider: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match (+126)
Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing
Anna Kalinskaya faces Diana Shnaider at Canadian Open on Thursday 6 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Anna Kalinskaya wins the match. It was priced at +126 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Analyzing recent form, Kalinskaya boasts a 60% win rate in her last five matches, indicating solid performance. On hard courts, her average first-serve percentage is an impressive 65.5%, winning 67.3% of first-serve points and 42.3% of second-serve points, which is crucial for maintaining pressure. Conversely, Shnaider's serve stats reveal vulnerabilities, with a lower first-serve win rate of 63% and a concerning 40.6% second-serve win rate. Additionally, Kalinskaya's ability to save break points at 42.5% provides a significant advantage when facing pressure. Overall, Kalinskaya's superior serve performance and strong recent form make her the value side in this matchup.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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