Here are our Tennis picks for Sunday 23 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe: Arthur Fils to win the match, priced at -192 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe: Arthur Fils to win the match (-192)

Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing

Arthur Fils faces Frances Tiafoe at Cincinnati Open on Sunday 23 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Arthur Fils wins the match. It was priced at -192 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Arthur Fils presents strong value at 1.52 against Frances Tiafoe, given his impressive recent form and superior serve metrics. Fils boasts a 80% win rate over his last five matches, considerably outperforming Tiafoe's recent performance. Notably, Tiafoe's service stats reveal vulnerabilities; he has a 68% first serve percentage and only a 40% break point save rate, indicating he struggles under pressure. In contrast, Fils has demonstrated resilience and efficiency in serve points, presenting a more formidable challenge to Tiafoe's second-serve game (where Tiafoe wins just 59% of points).

Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula: Coco Gauff to win the match (-147)

Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing

Coco Gauff faces Jessica Pegula at Cincinnati Open on Sunday 23 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Coco Gauff wins the match. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Coco Gauff presents strong value at 1.68 against Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati Open, primarily due to superior recent form and serve metrics. Gauff boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating heightened competitiveness. In contrast, Pegula's performance metrics show vulnerability, particularly with a lower average first-serve points won percentage (61.3%) and second-serve points won (41.9%). Gauff's ability to capitalize on these weaknesses could prove decisive. Moreover, Gauff's opponent has a BP save percentage of just 31.6%, signaling potential break opportunities for Gauff. Given that Pegula has a higher double fault rate (6.8%) and a comparable ace rate, Gauff's consistent serving under pressure could tilt the match in her favor.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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