Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 21 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima to win the match, priced at +178 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima to win the match (+178)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Taylor Fritz faces Brandon Nakashima at Cincinnati Open on Friday 21 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Brandon Nakashima wins the match. It was priced at +178 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.80 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Brandon Nakashima presents considerable value at 2.78 against Taylor Fritz in their Cincinnati Open clash. Recent form strongly favors Nakashima, boasting an 80% win rate over his last 5 matches, compared to Fritz's inconsistent performance. Nakashima's serve stats are impressive: he has a first-serve percentage of 62.4% and wins 80.6% of those points, indicating strong serve reliability. His second-serve points won at 56.0% further enhance his ability to handle pressure points. In contrast, Fritz's opponents have managed to win 72.7% of their first-serve points against him, revealing vulnerability. Additionally, Nakashima's 75% break point save rate outshines Fritz's 38.3%, suggesting he excels under pressure.

Coco Gauff vs Marta Kostyuk: Coco Gauff to win the match (-127)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Coco Gauff faces Marta Kostyuk at Cincinnati Open on Saturday 22 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Coco Gauff wins the match. It was priced at -127 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.90 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Coco Gauff is the value pick at 1.79 against Marta Kostyuk, supported by her superior recent form and serve performance metrics. Gauff boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating strong momentum. In contrast, Kostyuk's recent performance reflects vulnerabilities, particularly in pressure situations, with a lower break point save percentage of 74%. On serve, Gauff's ability to pressure her opponent is underscored by Kostyuk's struggles; she has allowed opponents to win 61.9% of their serve points and has a 70.8% BP save rate, suggesting she may struggle against Gauff's aggressive play. These factors collectively indicate solid value in backing Gauff for the win.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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