Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 14 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Cristina Bucsa to win the match, priced at +107 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Cristina Bucsa vs Bianca Andreescu: Cristina Bucsa to win the match (+107)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Cristina Bucsa faces Bianca Andreescu at Guadalajara Open on Sunday 13 September 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Cristina Bucsa wins the match. It was priced at +107 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Bucsa's recent form is notable, boasting a 60% win rate over her last five matches, compared to Andreescu's 40%. While specific serve stats are missing, we can infer pressure points from Andreescu's averages: she faces a 16.7% break point save rate, indicating vulnerability under pressure. In contrast, Bucsa's solid recent form suggests she can capitalize on these opportunities. Moreover, Andreescu's opponent serve statistics show higher first serve (58.5%) and second serve points won (56.4%), which could indicate her own struggles against aggressive players.

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton: Alexander Zverev to win the match (-133)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton at US Open on Sunday 13 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Zverev wins the match. It was priced at -133 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Zverev’s recent form showcases a perfect win rate in his last five matches, signaling strong momentum leading into this tournament. In terms of serve performance, Zverev has been effective on hard courts, crucial for this matchup, where Shelton has struggled against high-pressure opponents. Shelton's average first serve percentage over the last five matches is notably low, contributing to a higher likelihood of break points against him (BP save % of 37.5). Conversely, Zverev's power serve and ability to win first points will be pivotal; he can capitalize on Shelton's second serve vulnerabilities (60.8% points won). Overall, Zverev’s experience, combined with superior serve metrics and current form, strongly favors him to win this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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