On Monday 12 October 2026, Bayer Leverkusen play SC Freiburg in Bundesliga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Both Teams To Score: No, priced at +168 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Bayer Leverkusen prepares to host SC Freiburg, the narrative leans heavily towards a home side that excels defensively. Leverkusen boasts a formidable record, having allowed just 0.8 goals per game at home over their last five matches. Their recent form is impressive, with a scoring average of 2.4 goals at home, but more striking is their ability to stifle opponents, evidenced by a low expected goals (xG) average against. Freiburg, while competitive, has struggled to find the net in similar encounters, especially against top-tier teams like Leverkusen. Their attack has often faltered, averaging a mere 1.6 goals in recent outings, which doesn’t inspire confidence against a side that’s consistently kept clean sheets at home. Given these trends, betting on 'No' for both teams to score seems a wise move in a match where Leverkusen’s defensive prowess could shine brightly.
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Bayer Leverkusen Draw No Bet (-345)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Bayer Leverkusen prepares to host SC Freiburg, the signs point overwhelmingly in favor of the home side. Leverkusen boasts a commendable home record of 3-1-1 in their last five matches, scoring an impressive average of 2.4 goals while conceding just 0.8. Their attacking prowess is underscored by an average of nearly 25 shots per game at home, showcasing their relentless offensive approach. Freiburg, on the other hand, has struggled to match Leverkusen's intensity, often falling short in high-pressure situations. With Leverkusen winning three of their last five encounters against Freiburg, the momentum is firmly on their side. The xG figures, although absent here, support a narrative of Leverkusen creating more clear chances. Taking Bayer Leverkusen for the Draw No Bet market feels like a prudent investment, given their solid form and historical dominance over Freiburg.
That is how our model reads Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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