On Thursday 1 October 2026, Alavés play Atlético Madrid in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alavés +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -145 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid: Alavés +0.75 Goal Handicap (-145)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés welcomes Atlético Madrid, there's a compelling case for backing the home side with a 0.75 handicap. Alavés has been quietly impressive, showing resilience in their recent matches, and their expected goals (xG) have consistently outperformed their opponents. While Atlético's name carries weight, their recent performances have been shaky, struggling to find the back of the net with a disappointing xG compared to their actual goals. Consider this: Alavés has turned their home ground into a fortress, picking up vital points against tougher foes. They’ve found their rhythm, playing with confidence, and this matchup could be the perfect storm for an upset. Atlético, with their mixed form, might underestimate the challenge. With Alavés at home, their chances look brighter than ever, making the 0.75 handicap a wise investment. Expect a tight contest, but don't be surprised if Alavés snatches a win or holds Atlético to a draw.

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid: Alavés Draw No Bet (+200)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Alavés prepare to host Atlético Madrid, the stage is set for an intriguing clash. Alavés has found their footing lately, with a string of solid performances that have seen them pick up crucial points. Their defensive resilience has been impressive, allowing just 1.2 xG against in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Atlético, while a formidable opponent, have shown vulnerabilities on the road, particularly in their last few outings where they've struggled to convert chances into goals. The fact that this match is at Mendizorrotza gives Alavés a significant edge, especially considering their recent home form. They’ve been tough to break down and possess a knack for capitalizing on set pieces and counter-attacks. With Atlético potentially underestimating Alavés and the home crowd behind them, opting for a Draw No Bet on Alavés feels like a savvy move. They’re primed for an upset, and the odds reflect a tantalizing opportunity to back a motivated side.

That is how our model reads Alavés v Atlético Madrid. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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