On Saturday 10 October 2026, Valencia play Athletic Bilbao in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Valencia +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -189 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, the stakes couldn't be higher, especially given their recent form. Valencia has struggled lately, but there's a silver lining: they've managed to edge out Bilbao in their last five encounters, boasting a 3-0-2 record. While their home scoring has dipped to an average of just 1 goal per game, they’ve been creating chances, averaging over 15 shots—indicating a potential breakthrough. On the flip side, Athletic Bilbao has been more stable, but they're prone to defensive lapses, conceding an average of 2 goals in their recent away matches. They have the momentum to capitalize on Bilbao's vulnerabilities and could very well secure a much-needed win.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia Draw No Bet (+155)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, recent performances suggest a compelling narrative favoring the home side. Despite a shaky record with just one win in their last five, Valencia has historically fared well against Bilbao, boasting a 3-0-2 record in their last five encounters. While they've struggled to find the back of the net—averaging only 0.8 goals over their last five—Athletic’s away form isn’t stellar either, conceding 2 goals per game on average. Moreover, Valencia's solid defensive efforts make them a tough nut to crack, and with their improved performance at home (1-1-3), they’re primed for a resurgence. Athletic's recent matches show a similar trend, but they also lack the same historical edge. With a draw no bet backing Valencia, you’re not just betting on chance; you’re banking on their ability to harness the home advantage in a tightly contested clash.
That is how our model reads Valencia v Athletic Bilbao. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article