John Noble (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 23.5 Disposals (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

John Noble is poised to shine against the Greater Western Sydney Giants based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 26.3 disposals and a solid average of 24 disposals in his last five away games, Noble's consistency is evident. His high disposal efficiency of 80.5% and significant meters gained averaging 498 in away games indicate his impact on the field. Against the Giants, he has historically performed well, averaging 17.3 disposals in their recent matchups. Noble's ability to maintain possession, contribute to play with intercepts, and his strong trend of hitting rates in away games all point towards a solid chance of surpassing the line of 23.5 disposals set by sportsbet.

George Hewett (Carlton) Under 28.5 Disposals (-111)

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George Hewett is likely to fall short of 28.5 disposals based on his recent stats. Despite averaging 28.2 disposals in his last 5 home games, he faces North Melbourne, against whom he only averages 24.2 disposals. His overall disposals average of 26.8 also supports this. With a model prediction of 25.7 and a standard deviation of 5, the 18.1% edge suggests a strong chance of staying under. Hewett's recent form, with no current hit streak and a 3/4 hit rate in the last 4 home games, further supports this bet. Betting against Hewett hitting over 28.5 disposals seems a wise choice for this matchup at the MCG.

Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Under 20.5 Disposals (-115)

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Nick Blakey's recent away performances and his historical matchups against Port Adelaide suggest he may struggle to reach over 20.5 disposals. With a model-predicted average of 17.6 disposals and a solid 18.0% edge, his L5 stats show he averages 22 disposals in away games but only 16 against Port Adelaide. Considering his turnovers averaging 2.6 and contested possessions at 3.8, the under 20.5 disposals bet seems favorable. Despite a decent overall hit rate, his current streak is 0 for both home/away and overall games, indicating a potential dip in performance.

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) Under 21.5 Disposals (-128)

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Luke Jackson, playing at home, faces Essendon where he has historically averaged 16.5 disposals. His model-predicted 18.5 disposals, with a 16.6% edge, aligns with his recent average of 17.8 disposals at home. His L5 stats show consistency but fall slightly below the line due to his turnovers averaging 3 per game. With his recent hit rates and streaks, including a high overall hit rate of 19/20, Jackson's form suggests he's likely to stay under 21.5 disposals. The combination of his historical performance against Essendon, model insights, and recent trends point towards a solid rationale for betting on Luke Jackson to have fewer than 21.5 disposals in this upcoming game.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Under 24.5 Disposals (-128)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Roberts is poised to fall under 24.5 disposals against Fremantle, supported by his recent performance data. With an average of 21 disposals in his last five away games and facing Fremantle where he averages 18 disposals, Roberts is likely to stay below the 24.5 line. His recent 72.8% disposal efficiency, coupled with averaging 4 turnovers, indicates potential limitations in maintaining possession. Despite hitting a 2-game streak away, Roberts' overall hit rate stands at 2/3, suggesting inconsistency. These factors align with the model's prediction of 21.8 disposals, presenting a 14.5% edge and an implied probability of 56.2% for the under, making it a favorable betting choice.

Kane McAuliffe (Richmond) Under 18.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Kane McAuliffe's recent form, especially in away games, supports betting on him to go Under 18.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 15.9 and a 14.5% edge, his L5 away average sits at 15 disposals, below the line. McAuliffe's L5 stats show consistency in contested possessions (7.8) and kicks (5.6) but a lower overall disposal average of 18.4. His turnovers (1.2) and uncontested possessions (8) also suggest a slower-paced game for him. With a strong recent hit rate of 4/5 away games and facing a tough Western Bulldogs side, McAuliffe is likely to fall short of the disposal line in this matchup.

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