On Saturday 26 September 2026, Real Madrid play Sevilla in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Sevilla +3.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -476 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Sevilla +3.5 Goal Handicap (-476)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Real Madrid prepares to host Sevilla, the recent form of both sides tells a compelling story. Real's home record is impressive, winning five straight at the Bernabéu, averaging a hefty 3.6 goals per game. However, Sevilla has historically struggled against them, losing their last five encounters, including a 3-0 drubbing earlier this season. Yet, Sevilla's away performances have shown some resilience, with a recent uptick in scoring, averaging 1.6 goals per game on the road. Their ability to maintain a defensive shape could be crucial, especially since Real's last two outings saw them falter against teams that pressed them effectively. With a 3.5 goal line, the odds favor Sevilla to at least keep it close, leveraging their newfound attacking fluidity against a Real side that may underestimate them. This handicap bet captures the potential for a spirited contest, where Sevilla could very well surprise.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Real Madrid gears up to host Sevilla, the stage is set for a tactical battle that leans towards fewer goals. Real's recent home form has been formidable, but they've been stingy defensively, conceding just 0.8 goals per game at home in their last five outings. Meanwhile, Sevilla has struggled to find their rhythm on the road, averaging just 1.6 goals in their last five away matches. In their last five meetings, Real Madrid has completely dominated Sevilla, winning all encounters without conceding. With an average of only 2.4 goals scored by Madrid and 1.0 by Sevilla in their last five, the trend suggests a low-scoring affair. Add in Sevilla’s difficulty breaking through against top teams, and taking the 'Under 3.5' on total goals feels like a savvy move here.

That is how our model reads Real Madrid v Sevilla. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article