Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction & Picks, October 23, 2026

For Jalen Duren to stay under 18.5 points and assists tonight, he needs to face a Miami Heat team that has been letting opponents shoot a lot of three-pointers. The Heat allow over 37 attempts from deep each game, which could mean fewer chances for Duren to score inside. Plus, Miami's defense is decent at forcing turnovers, which could limit his opportunities to rack up assists. However, there's a risk here since both teams are close in how they defend the boards, with the Pistons giving up slightly more rebounds. If Detroit struggles to grab boards and gives Miami extra possessions, Duren could have more chances than expected. Still, Miami's overall defensive style makes this pick look good.

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren Under 14.5 Points (+170)

For Jalen Duren to go under 14.5 points tonight, the Miami Heat will need to defend well, and they usually do. The Heat often allow a lot of three-point shots, but they also do a decent job of forcing turnovers, which could limit Duren's chances to score. Plus, the Pistons don't shoot many threes, so he might not get as many easy baskets. However, it's important to note that Duren has been known to step up in tough matchups, and both teams are closely matched when it comes to rebounds. If he gets into foul trouble or if Miami controls the game pace, Duren might struggle to hit that points mark. It's a tricky bet, but it has a good chance of coming through tonight.

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 Points (-175)

Davion Mitchell has been a solid player lately, averaging nearly 20 points, rebounds, and assists combined in both home and away games. He's shown he can put up the numbers, especially at home where his scoring is a bit stronger. Miami's defense has been known to allow plenty of scoring opportunities, particularly from players who can create their own shots. The bet is for him to score over 7.5 points, which seems reasonable given his form and Miami's tendency to give up points. However, the risk is that Detroit plays solid defense at times, so if they clamp down, he might struggle. Overall, though, it feels like a good spot for Mitchell to shine here.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.