Here are our Tennis picks for Wednesday 7 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Facundo Diaz Acosta to win the match, priced at +300 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Nuno Borges vs Facundo Diaz Acosta: Facundo Diaz Acosta to win the match (+300)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Nuno Borges faces Facundo Diaz Acosta at Shanghai Masters on Thursday 8 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Facundo Diaz Acosta wins the match. It was priced at +300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Analyzing recent form, both players have a win rate of 20% in their last five matches; however, Acosta's serving statistics indicate a stronger performance under pressure. His average first-serve percentage is 68.8%, with 67.7% of first points won, showcasing reliability in service games. Conversely, Borges has lower metrics, particularly in serve points won (62.2%) and a modest BP save percentage of 59.5%. Acosta's ability to win second points (49.9%) further indicates resilience in crucial moments. Additionally, Acosta's ace rate (4.7%) slightly exceeds Borges’s and is accompanied by a lower double fault rate (3.0%). Given these factors, Acosta's superior serving performance and pressure handling on hard courts make him the value pick.
Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac: Tomas Machac to win the match (+200)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Alexander Bublik faces Tomas Machac at Shanghai Masters on Friday 9 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Tomas Machac wins the match. It was priced at +200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $30 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Tomas Machac presents significant value at odds of 3 against Alexander Bublik based on recent performance metrics. In their last five matches, Machac has a win rate of 20%, while Bublik's is lower at only 10%. Serve performance is crucial: Machac boasts a first-serve percentage of 63.74% and a first-serve points won rate of 59.89%, compared to Bublik's lesser stats. Machac’s second-serve points won rate is 41.22%, indicating resilience in pressure situations. In contrast, Bublik’s overall serve points won percentage sits at 51.83%, suggesting vulnerability. Machac also excels in breaking points, saving 56.36% against Bublik's 50%. Moreover, Machac's recent form suggests improvement, while Bublik struggles with consistency.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article