Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 8 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Jenson Brooksby to win the match, priced at +177 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Jaume Munar vs Jenson Brooksby: Jenson Brooksby to win the match (+177)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Jaume Munar faces Jenson Brooksby at Shanghai Masters on Thursday 8 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Jenson Brooksby wins the match. It was priced at +177 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.70 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Jenson Brooksby presents strong value at 2.77 against Jaume Munar, supported by key performance metrics. Over his last five matches, Brooksby boasts a 60% win rate, significantly outperforming Munar's recent form. His average first-serve percentage of 74.74% and first points won at 71.91% indicate solid serving reliability, critical on hard courts. Moreover, Brooksby demonstrates resilience with a 70% break point save rate, which will be pivotal against Munar's pressure. In contrast, Munar's recent form and serve statistics are less impressive, making Brooksby the favorable option. Overall, Brooksby’s performance metrics align favorably for a betting pick.
Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima to win the match (-145)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Matteo Berrettini faces Brandon Nakashima at Shanghai Masters on Friday 9 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Brandon Nakashima wins the match. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Brandon Nakashima presents solid value at 1.69 against Matteo Berrettini, supported by several key performance indicators. In their last five matches, Nakashima boasts a 60% win rate, while Berrettini's recent form shows vulnerabilities. On serve, Nakashima has a first-serve percentage of 58.6% with 72.6% of first-serve points won, while Berrettini's opponents have capitalized on his serve with a higher 65.8% first-serve points won against him. Nakashima’s second-serve points won at 55.5% also exceed Berrettini's struggles in this area. Additionally, Nakashima has a strong break point save percentage of 60.7%, significantly better than Berrettini's 72.7% against, showing resilience in pressure situations.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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