Here are our Tennis picks for Tuesday 8 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Frances Tiafoe to win the match, priced at -147 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen: Frances Tiafoe to win the match (-147)

Odds available at Neds at time of publishing

Frances Tiafoe faces Alex Michelsen at US Open on Tuesday 8 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Frances Tiafoe wins the match. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Frances Tiafoe presents significant value at 1.68 against Alex Michelsen, supported by strong recent form and serve performance. Tiafoe boasts an impressive 80% win rate over his last five matches, with a solid first-serve percentage of 39.13% and 66.67% of first points won. In contrast, Michelsen's opponents have achieved a 58.81% first-serve percentage against him, winning 77.63% of first points, indicating vulnerability under pressure. Both players have equal BP save percentages (50%), but Tiafoe's overall serve performance (59.42% points won) is superior to Michelsen's (65.73%). Additionally, Tiafoe's home advantage at the US Open adds another layer of confidence. With a model probability of 79.96%, Tiafoe is a strong

Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro: Jessica Pegula to win the match (-400)

Odds available at Neds at time of publishing

Jessica Pegula faces Emma Navarro at US Open on Tuesday 8 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Jessica Pegula wins the match. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Jessica Pegula is the clear value pick against Emma Navarro at the US Open, primarily due to her superior recent form and serve performance. Pegula boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, while Navarro's recent form is less favorable. On hard courts, Pegula's opponent’s serving stats reveal vulnerabilities: Navarro has a relatively low first-serve points won percentage (around 63.8%) and a moderate break point save percentage (90%). Conversely, Pegula, with her consistent high-level play, should capitalize on this by applying pressure during Navarro's service games. Moreover, Pegula's strong baseline game is complemented by her ability to handle high-pressure situations effectively, making her a formidable opponent. Thus, Pegula presents excellent value at 1.25.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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