Today's Tennis Best Bets - Our Top 6 Picks

Here are our Tennis picks for Sunday 6 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match, priced at -104 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match (-104)

Anna Kalinskaya faces Emma Navarro at US Open on Monday 7 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Anna Kalinskaya wins the match. It was priced at -104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Anna Kalinskaya presents a strong value pick at 1.96 against Emma Navarro, supported by several key metrics. Kalinskaya boasts a solid recent form with a 60% win rate over her last five matches, indicating consistency. In contrast, Navarro’s stats show vulnerabilities; she allows a high opponent first-serve win rate of 64.3%, which could be exploited by Kalinskaya's aggressive play. Navarro's second serve performance is notably weak, with opponents winning 43.3% of points, suggesting Kalinskaya can capitalize on break opportunities. Additionally, Navarro's overall serve points won percentage is lower than Kalinskaya's, which enhances the likelihood of her struggling under pressure.

Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina: Elena Rybakina to win the match (-123)

Naomi Osaka faces Elena Rybakina at US Open on Monday 7 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elena Rybakina wins the match. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Rybakina's recent form is impeccable, boasting an 80% win rate over her last five matches, showcasing her consistent performance under pressure. While specific serve stats are not provided, her overall hard court performance suggests stronger serve efficacy compared to Osaka. Rybakina's ability to win key points, particularly on serve, is likely superior, contributing to her recent success. Additionally, Osaka's recent form appears less reliable, which could impact her mental resilience in a high-stakes match. Given these insights, Rybakina's combination of recent form and presumed serve prowess makes her the pick for this matchup, highlighting the value in betting against a potentially vulnerable Osaka.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx: Alexander Blockx to win the match (-145)

Francisco Cerundolo faces Alexander Blockx at US Open on Monday 7 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Blockx wins the match. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Blockx has a 60% win rate in his last five matches, compared to Cerundolo's lower win rate. Both players have similar first-serve percentages (56.5%), but Blockx excels in winning first-serve points (82.3%) and has a notably higher break point save percentage (77.8%) compared to Cerundolo's less impressive figures. Moreover, Blockx's second-serve points won (46.0%) indicate resilience under pressure. In contrast, Cerundolo struggles with a higher opponent second-serve points won rate (58.1%), highlighting potential vulnerabilities. Blockx's ace rate (13.8%) further underscores his serving prowess, while Cerundolo's defense (2.0% double fault rate) indicates he can be pressured effectively.

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe: Frances Tiafoe to win the match (+148)

Daniil Medvedev faces Frances Tiafoe at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Frances Tiafoe wins the match. It was priced at +148 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.80 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Frances Tiafoe presents strong value at 2.48 against Daniil Medvedev, backed by superior recent form and serve performance. Over his last five matches, Tiafoe boasts an impressive 80% win rate, while Medvedev has only matched that in overall performance. Tiafoe's first-serve percentage stands at 45.57% with 71.79% of first-serve points won, indicating he capitalizes effectively under pressure. Medvedev, conversely, struggles with a first-serve win rate of 58.66% against opponents, showcasing vulnerability. Tiafoe's solid 63.89% break point save rate further emphasizes his resilience in crucial moments. Additionally, Tiafoe's ace rate (7.57%) significantly outperforms Medvedev's (3.61%), highlighting his potential to dominate service games. The combination of Tiafoe's strong recent form and serve metrics, coupled with Medvedev's inconsistency under pressure, supports the rationale for backing Tiafoe in this

Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea: Jessica Pegula to win the match (-270)

Jessica Pegula faces Sorana Cirstea at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Jessica Pegula wins the match. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Pegula boasts a strong recent form with an 80% win rate in her last five matches. Although specific serve metrics are missing, her overall win rate suggests solid performance under pressure. Cirstea, on the other hand, has a mediocre average first-serve percentage of 49.2% and a low BP save rate of 50% in her last five matches, which implies vulnerability in high-pressure scenarios. Additionally, her winning percentages on serve (68.25% overall and 66.56% against second serves) are less impressive compared to Pegula's recent hard court success. Thus, Pegula's superior form, coupled with Cirstea's struggles on serve, makes Pegula a strong pick for this matchup.

Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng: Iga Swiatek to win the match (-370)

Iga Swiatek faces Qinwen Zheng at US Open on Monday 7 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Iga Swiatek wins the match. It was priced at -370 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Swiatek boasts a remarkable 80% win rate in her last five matches, showcasing her current dominance on hard courts. In contrast, Zheng's recent stats indicate vulnerability, particularly in pressure situations, with a BP save percentage of only 53.2%. Swiatek's ability to win first-serve points (approx. 64%) and her proficiency on hard surfaces (first points won at 61.6%) highlight her offensive strength. Zheng's averages are lower, especially in second-serve points won (42.2%), indicating potential trouble when under pressure. Given Swiatek's overall superior performance metrics and Zheng's inconsistency, Swiatek is the clear value pick in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.