Here are our Tennis picks for Saturday 3 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Elise Mertens to win the match, priced at -118 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens: Elise Mertens to win the match (-118)
Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing
Katie Volynets faces Elise Mertens at China Open on Saturday 3 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elise Mertens wins the match. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Elise Mertens is the value pick at 1.85 against Katie Volynets, supported by superior recent form and serve performance. Mertens has a 60% win rate in her last five matches, indicating strong competitiveness. In contrast, Volynets has struggled, with no recent serve stats provided, suggesting potential vulnerability. Analyzing opponent context, Mertens faces an opponent with a first-serve percentage of 63.83% and points won on first serves at 86.67%, which indicates a challenging matchup for Volynets. Mertens excels in pressure situations, boasting a 66.67% break point save rate, compared to Volynets' lack of serve data. Moreover, Mertens' average of 12.76% aces and 10.64% double faults over her last five matches showcases her ability to capitalize on service games effectively.
Matteo Berrettini vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: Matteo Berrettini to win the match (-164)
Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing
Matteo Berrettini faces Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at Japan Open on Saturday 3 October 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Matteo Berrettini wins the match. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Matteo Berrettini presents a solid betting opportunity against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, given his recent form and serving performance. In his last five matches, Berrettini has a first-serve percentage of 58.6% and wins 81.8% of those points, indicating strong initial serve effectiveness. His overall serve points won percentage stands at 69.2%, showcasing reliability under pressure. Additionally, he boasts a 64.3% break point save rate, which is crucial in tight matches. In contrast, Vallejo's metrics are untested, as there’s no available data on his recent performances. Overall, Berrettini's strong serve and recent form position him as the favorite in this matchup.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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