Today's Tennis Best Bets - Our Top 6 Picks

Here are our Tennis picks for Saturday 5 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match, priced at +104 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match (+104)

Anna Kalinskaya faces Emma Navarro at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Anna Kalinskaya wins the match. It was priced at +104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Anna Kalinskaya is a strong pick at 2.04 against Emma Navarro due to her superior recent form and serve performance. Kalinskaya boasts a 60% win rate in her last five matches, indicating solid momentum entering this match. In contrast, Navarro's serve statistics show vulnerability; she allows opponents a 64.3% win rate on her first serve, and her second serve win percentage drops to 43.3%. This highlights a potential breaking point for Kalinskaya, who can capitalize on these weaknesses. Additionally, Kalinskaya's ability to pressure Navarro on break points will be crucial, especially given Navarro's 60% break point save rate, which is below average. The model gives Kalinskaya a 75.8% chance of winning, suggesting significant value at the current odds. With her strong serve and recent form, she is poised to outperform Navarro on this hard court surface.

Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien: Learner Tien to win the match (-123)

Jakub Mensik faces Learner Tien at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Learner Tien wins the match. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.10 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Tien has a solid 60% win rate over his last five matches, while Mensik struggles with a significantly lower performance on hard courts, particularly evident in his opponent's first-serve win rate of 67.3% compared to Tien's 71.1%. Tien's average first-serve percentage (59.5%) and points won on first serves (71.1%) indicate effective serving, while Mensik's lower second-serve win percentage (49.6%) suggests vulnerability under pressure. Tien's ability to save break points (20%) is crucial, especially against Mensik’s aggressive play. Additionally, Tien's ace rate (6.5%) further amplifies his service strength, contrasting sharply with Mensik’s minimal ace effectiveness. Collectively, these metrics position Learner Tien as the more reliable choice for a moneyline pick.

Karen Khachanov vs Benjamin Bonzi: Karen Khachanov to win the match (-189)

Karen Khachanov faces Benjamin Bonzi at US Open on Saturday 5 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Karen Khachanov wins the match. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Karen Khachanov presents strong value at 1.53 against Benjamin Bonzi, particularly given their recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Khachanov's last five matches show a commendable first-serve percentage of 47.53% with a first-point win rate of 72.52% and a solid second-point win rate of 51.90%. His overall serve points won percentage of 62.17% and a high break point save percentage of 70.78% indicate resilience under pressure. In contrast, Bonzi’s serve metrics reveal vulnerabilities, including a lower overall second-point win rate of 53.84% and a break point save percentage of just 54.17%. Bonzi also struggles with a higher average ace rate, which may reflect less consistency. With Khachanov's superior recent win rate (20% in the last 5 matches vs.

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe: Frances Tiafoe to win the match (+134)

Daniil Medvedev faces Frances Tiafoe at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Frances Tiafoe wins the match. It was priced at +134 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.40 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Frances Tiafoe offers significant value at 2.34 due to his superior recent form and serve performance. Over his last five matches, Tiafoe boasts an impressive 80% win rate, showcasing consistency and momentum. His first-serve percentage stands at 45.6%, with a strong 71.8% of first points won, indicating effective serve execution. Additionally, his second-serve points won at 49.6% highlight his ability to capitalize under pressure. Tiafoe's break point save percentage of 63.9% demonstrates resilience in critical moments, contrasting with Medvedev's relative struggles in this area. Moreover, Tiafoe's opponents have averaged a 58.7% first-serve percentage and a 62.3% points won on serve against him, suggesting he can exploit weaknesses in Medvedev's game.

Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli: Flavio Cobolli to win the match (-102)

Alexander Blockx faces Flavio Cobolli at US Open on Saturday 5 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Flavio Cobolli wins the match. It was priced at -102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Flavio Cobolli presents strong value at 1.98 against Alexander Blockx, bolstered by superior recent form and serve metrics. Cobolli's last five matches showcase an impressive 80% win rate, significantly outpacing Blockx's 60% win rate over his last ten. On serve, Cobolli has maintained a first-serve percentage of 57.14% with a solid 69.54% of first points won, highlighting his efficiency under pressure. He also excels in second-serve points, winning 55.42%. In contrast, Blockx's opponents have been more effective on their serves, with a 62.22% overall serve points won rate. Cobolli's break point save percentage (45.83%) is competitive, while Blockx struggles at 59.82%.

Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng: Madison Keys to win the match (-154)

Madison Keys faces Qinwen Zheng at US Open on Saturday 5 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Madison Keys wins the match. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Madison Keys presents a strong value pick at 1.65 against Qinwen Zheng based on her superior recent form and serve performance. With an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, Keys' ability to dominate on hard courts is evident. In contrast, Zheng's form shows inconsistency, affecting her pressure point performance. Keys excels in serve stats, with a significantly higher average first-serve percentage and points won on first serves, indicating her efficiency in holding serve. Conversely, Zheng struggles with a 62% opponent first-serve win rate, highlighting her vulnerability under pressure. Additionally, Keys' ability to convert break points and her overall match experience lend her an advantage.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.