Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: Dalibor Svrcina to win the match, priced at +134 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: Dalibor Svrcina to win the match (+134)

Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing

Luciano Darderi faces Dalibor Svrcina at US Open on Thursday 3 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Dalibor Svrcina wins the match. It was priced at +134 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. For the matchup between Dalibor Svrcina and Luciano Darderi at the US Open on hard courts, Dalibor Svrcina presents significant value at +134 (2.34). Analyzing recent form, Svrcina has a 60% win rate over the last five matches, indicating solid momentum. While specific serve statistics are not provided, Svrcina's overall performance, including his ability to win pressure points, is crucial. If Svrcina can maintain a higher first and second serve points won percentage, he can exploit any weaknesses in Darderi's game. Overall, Svrcina's recent form and winning percentage make him a favorable choice in this matchup.

Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe: Frances Tiafoe to win the match (-125)

Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing

Valentin Vacherot faces Frances Tiafoe at US Open on Friday 4 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Frances Tiafoe wins the match. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Tiafoe’s recent form is impressive, boasting an 80% win rate over his last five matches. His serving statistics are particularly compelling on hard courts: he has a first-serve percentage of 45.2% and wins 76.6% of first-serve points, indicating strong service performance under pressure. Additionally, Tiafoe's second-serve points won rate of 49.4% and a break point save percentage of 59.3% further highlight his ability to maintain composure and capitalize on critical moments. In contrast, Vacherot struggles in these categories, making Tiafoe the more reliable contender. Given these insights, Tiafoe's combination of superior serving metrics and recent form makes him a solid pick against Vacherot in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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