On Saturday 5 September 2026, Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz in tennis. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match, priced at -455 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (-455)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz at US Open on Sunday 6 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Carlos Alcaraz wins the match. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Carlos Alcaraz is the value pick against Tommy Paul, primarily due to superior serve performance and recent form. Alcaraz boasts a hard court first-serve percentage of 68.96% and a first points won rate of 74.93%, compared to Paul's 67.16% and 64.44%. Additionally, Alcaraz's ability to convert pressure points is highlighted by his impressive 83.33% break point save rate, significantly outperforming Paul’s 37.11%. In terms of recent form, Alcaraz has maintained an 80% win rate over his last five matches, indicating strong competitive consistency.

That is how our model reads Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article