Josh Lowe (TBR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-278)

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The bet on Josh Lowe for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, his overall and away stolen base averages are zero, indicating he hasn't stolen a base recently. Furthermore, his average caught stealing (Cs) numbers are also zero, suggesting he has not been attempting to steal bases. Despite his current hit streaks, these do not translate directly into stolen bases. His performance against the opposition also supports this bet, with an average of zero stolen bases in the last five games against the Red Sox. Therefore, based on Lowe's recent trends and lack of stolen base activity, the under 0.5 stolen bases bet is a statistically sound choice.

Shane Baz (TBR) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Shane Baz's recent performance data indicates a strong potential for achieving over 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game. His last five games show an average of 7.4 strikeouts overall and 4.4 when playing away. Notably, his record against the Red Sox is even stronger, with an average of 8 strikeouts. This trend is supported by Baz's innings pitched (IP) averages, which are sufficient to allow for the necessary strikeouts. His overall IP average is 5.6, while his away IP average is 5.7, and against the Red Sox, it's 6.3. These figures suggest that Baz typically pitches long enough in games to achieve the required number of strikeouts. Furthermore, Baz's current away hit streak is at 4 games, demonstrating a consistent performance in away games. Therefore, the data suggests that betting on Baz to achieve over 3.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound choice.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-213)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Oneil Cruz for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performance data. Cruz's L5 overall and home stolen base averages both sit at 0.4, which is lower than the line of 0.5. This indicates that he's generally not stealing more than half a base per game. Furthermore, Cruz's L5 home stolen base average against the Marlins is only 0.2, suggesting his base-stealing rate drops even further when facing this specific opponent at home. Additionally, the average caught stealing (Cs) rates are all zero, indicating that Cruz isn't taking many risks on the bases. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, are also quite low, suggesting a lower likelihood of him being on base to attempt a steal. Thus, the data suggests Cruz is unlikely to steal a base in this game.

Jackson Chourio (MIL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 stolen bases bet for Jackson Chourio in the Brewers vs Braves game is a strong choice due to Chourio's recent performance data. His last five overall stolen base average is zero, as is his last five home stolen base average, indicating a lack of recent success in stealing bases, particularly at home. Additionally, his average caught stealing rate is low, suggesting he doesn't often attempt to steal bases. Despite a solid hit streak, this doesn't necessarily translate to stolen bases. The data also shows that the Braves haven't been successful in catching runners recently, but this is less relevant given Chourio's low stolen base averages. Therefore, the under 0.5 stolen bases is a favorable bet based on Chourio's recent performance.

Matthew Boyd (CHC) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Matthew Boyd has a strong propensity to allow walks, especially when playing away games. Over the last five games, his average walks allowed is 2.4, but this figure increases to 2.6 when he is playing away. This trend is reinforced by his current hit streaks, with a seven-game overall streak and a five-game away streak. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) and outs average are lower when playing away, indicating he struggles to maintain control in away games. This could lead to more opportunities for walks. Given these consistent patterns, betting on Boyd to allow over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game against the Phillies is statistically justified.

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