On Thursday 17 September 2026, Atlanta Dream play Connecticut Sun in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 170 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 170 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
The total points line for the game between the Atlanta Dream and Connecticut Sun is set at 170, but our numbers suggest it should be lower, around 166.1. Both teams have been playing tightly contested games lately, and the close matchup means they might struggle to score high. Travel could also play a factor, as the Sun have traveled quite a bit further than the Dream. With both teams being evenly matched and the potential for a lower-scoring game, this pick leans toward the under. Just remember, one big run from either team can always change things. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Connecticut Sun +13.5 on the Line (+112)
Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing
For the Connecticut Sun to cover the spread, they need to keep the game within 13.5 points against the Atlanta Dream. The Sun have been competitive lately, and our numbers suggest they might lose by about 10 points, which is close enough to give them a good shot at covering the spread. The Sun also have a slight advantage in overall performance, despite the travel distance being a bit more than the Dream's. The main risk here is the Dream playing at home, where they can really feed off their crowd. It was priced at +112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.20 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Angel Reese Over 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Angel Reese is on a hot streak, showing off her skills with more points and field goals than usual. She's not just scoring, though; her recent numbers show she's also grabbing a lot of rebounds and dishing out assists. With the Atlanta Dream playing at home, they'll be looking to keep up the pressure against the Connecticut Sun, who have struggled at times to contain strong players like Reese. Betting on Angel Reese to get over 15.5 rebounds and assists looks promising. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so the game could go either way. Still, with Reese playing so well lately, this bet seems like it has a decent chance to hit. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Naz Hillmon Over 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Naz Hillmon needs to score points and grab rebounds for the Atlanta Dream to hit over 12.5 combined tonight against the Connecticut Sun. She's been in good form lately, averaging over 10 points and showing she can be active on the boards. Hillmon usually attempts more three-point shots than the average, which could help her rack up those points. The biggest risk is that the Sun are a tough opponent, and the game could be closer than expected. Still, with her recent performances and the home-court advantage at Gateway Center Arena, there's a solid chance she can reach that total. Let's see if she can shine tonight! It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Allisha Gray Over 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Allisha Gray is set at over 21.5 points and rebounds, and this price looks decent. Our numbers show she typically scores around 20.4 points but has been closer to 16.4 lately. However, she's been active on defense too, pulling in an average of 2.4 defensive rebounds, which suggests she can contribute more in both areas. The Connecticut Sun have been tough, but Gray has a good chance to step up, especially at home. The main concern is that she's been off her usual scoring pace recently. Still, with her ability to rebound and the matchup, there's a solid shot for her to hit that over. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Atlanta Dream v Connecticut Sun. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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