Michael Harris II (ATL) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins, all eyes will be on Michael Harris II, but betting on him to swipe more than one base feels like a stretch. While Harris has undeniable speed, the Marlins' pitchers have been adept at holding runners this season, allowing just 0.7 steals per game—a figure that suggests their battery is well-prepared to control the running game. Moreover, Harris has only managed to steal bases in about 20% of his attempts against Miami. With the Braves likely focusing on scoring through power rather than small ball, it’s reasonable to expect them to minimize risky plays on the basepaths. Given the current trends and the matchup dynamics, betting on Michael Harris to stay under 1.5 stolen bases seems prudent. The odds favor this outcome strongly, making it a compelling angle in today's matchup.

Connor Norby (NA) Under 1.5 Doubles (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Braves face the Marlins, all eyes will be on Connor Norby, but betting on him to hit over 1.5 doubles feels like a stretch. While he’s been a promising young bat, his recent form has been shaky, especially against elite pitching. The Braves’ rotation has been nothing short of stellar, sitting near the top of the league in strikeouts and keeping opponents guessing with their mix of high-velocity fastballs and sharp breaking pitches. Moreover, the Marlins’ lineup has struggled against right-handers, and with the Braves' bullpen ranked among the best, the chances of Norby finding gaps diminish significantly. Historically, he’s found it difficult to pile up doubles against teams with strong defensive alignments like Atlanta. With the odds leaning heavily towards the under on this line, it seems wise to expect Norby to fall short of that 1.5 doubles mark tonight.

Xavier Edwards (MIA) Under 1.5 Walks (-625)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins, all eyes will be on Xavier Edwards and his ability to draw walks. However, considering his recent performance, placing a wager on him to go under 1.5 walks seems prudent. Edwards has struggled to find consistent plate discipline lately, posting a mere 5% walk rate over his last 50 plate appearances. The Braves' pitching staff, particularly their starters, has been exceptional at limiting free passes, sitting among the league's best in walk rate allowed. When you factor in the Marlins' tendency to swing aggressively against right-handed pitchers, it’s hard to envision Edwards getting on base via the walk route. Given these dynamics, the under appears to be a savvy play, especially with the implied probability suggesting a high likelihood of hitting this mark. As the game unfolds, expect Edwards to face challenges in earning those free passes.

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