Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 07/23 (Patrick Lipinski Highlights): Finding the Edge

Colby McKercher is poised to stay under 28.5 disposals against Geelong Cats due to his recent averages. Despite a solid L5 overall disposals average of 29.2, his L5 home game disposals are slightly lower at 24. Additionally, facing Geelong, where he averages just 1 disposal in the last 5 games against them, could limit his opportunities. With a model prediction of 25.8 disposals and a 19.0% edge, his recent L5 stats suggest he's more likely to fall below the 28.5 line. McKercher's L5 turnover average of 4.4 could also indicate potential ball control issues, further supporting the under bet.

Jack Williams (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-175)

Jack Williams is a strong bet to snag a goal against Fremantle based on his recent form. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last five away games and a consistent 55.0% goal accuracy, Williams has been a reliable goal-kicker. His involvement in the attacking plays is evident from his 3.6 score involvements per game. Facing Fremantle, against whom he averages 1 goal in his last five matchups, further boosts his chances. With an edge of 18.7% according to the model, Williams' form and historical performance make him a solid pick to hit the scoreboard, making the Over 0.5 goals bet enticing for this matchup.

Joe Richards (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-125)

Joe Richards is poised to snag a goal in the upcoming clash based on his recent form. With an average of 0.4 goals in his last five away games and 0.5 goals against the upcoming opponent, Richards has shown consistent scoring ability. His 40.0% goal accuracy and 1.2 shots at goal per game indicate he's getting opportunities to capitalize. Additionally, his 2.8 score involvements per game highlight his active role in setting up scoring plays. The model's prediction of 1 goal, coupled with a significant 18.7% edge, suggests Richards is undervalued to score. Betting on Richards to score anytime against Adelaide Crows aligns with his recent performance metrics and scoring potential.

Jonty Faull (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-145)

Jonty Faull is poised to snag a goal in the upcoming Tigers vs. Magpies showdown. Despite a modest L5 average of 0.2 goals in home games, Faull's recent form showcases increased offensive involvement with 1.2 shots on goal and 3.2 score involvements per game. With an impressive L5 10.0% goal accuracy and facing an opponent where he can exploit his 2.4 inside 50s and 0.8 marks inside 50 averages, Faull's chances of hitting the back of the net are promising. The model's prediction of 1.1 goals, coupled with a solid 18.1% edge, make Faull a compelling bet to score anytime at the MCG.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Under 19.5 Disposals (-110)

Dylan Moore's recent form, especially at home, suggests he may fall short of the 19.5 disposal line. Despite a solid average of 19.2 disposals in his last five home games, his contest possessions and disposal efficiency have been inconsistent. Against Carlton, his average disposals drop to 15, below the line. With a model predicting 16.8 disposals and a 78.8% disposal efficiency, coupled with a recent hit rate of 6/7 in home games, Moore might struggle to reach 19.5 disposals. The data, including his turnover average of 3 and a hit rate of 10/13 overall, supports a wager on Moore to go under the disposal line in this matchup.