Here are our MLS picks for Sunday 13 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 2.5 Total Goals, priced at +114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
In the upcoming clash between Orlando City SC and Toronto FC, the stage is set for goals galore. Orlando, with a strong home record of 3-1-1 in their last five, has been averaging 2 goals per game while allowing just 1.6. Their attacking play, featuring an impressive 12.4 shots per game, indicates they're more than capable of finding the back of the net. On the other hand, Toronto’s away form has been shaky, but they managed to score an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches overall. Despite their defensive woes, which have seen them concede 2 goals per game, they tend to engage in high-scoring affairs. With both teams displaying a propensity to score, betting on over 2.5 total goals seems like a savvy move, especially with Orlando's scoring prowess at home and Toronto's need to find their rhythm on the road.
Como vs Parma: Parma +1.75 Goal Handicap (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Como prepares to host Parma, the contrasting form of these teams paints a compelling picture for bettors. Como has been impressive at home, racking up a 4-1-0 record over their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game while conceding a mere 0.8. Their offensive prowess is underscored by a staggering average of nearly 20 shots per game. On the flip side, Parma has struggled away from home, with just one win in five and a dismal average of 0.4 goals scored. Their lack of creativity is alarming, mustering only 5.4 shots per match. With Como’s strong home defense and Parma’s recent inability to find the back of the net, backing Parma with a 1.75 handicap seems prudent. The odds offer value given the disparity in form, making this a favorable bet as the teams clash.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As FC Cincinnati prepares to host Charlotte FC, the stage is set for a clash where goals may be hard to come by. Cincinnati’s recent form at home shows a stark trend; they’ve averaged just 0.6 goals across their last five matches, while their opponents have been scoring at a modest rate of 1.4. Their xG stats paint an even grimmer picture, indicating they haven't created any significant scoring opportunities lately. Charlotte, on the other hand, while more effective away, has also struggled to find the net consistently against Cincinnati, winning only 3 of their last 5 encounters. With both teams showing a propensity for low-scoring affairs and a combined average of just a couple of goals per game, betting on under 6.5 total goals seems like a shrewd move. The defensive setups of both sides could well stifle any attacking ambitions, leading to a tightly contested match.
Lecce vs Monza: Over 7.5 Total Corners (-161)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As Lecce prepares to host Monza, the trends point towards an entertaining clash that could see the corners tally surge past 7.5. Lecce's attacking play has been robust at home, averaging nearly ten shots per game, which naturally leads to a higher number of corners. Despite a recent dip in goal-scoring, they consistently apply pressure, generating around 2.6 corners per match in their last five. On the flip side, Monza's away form has been lackluster, but they still manage to fire off over nine shots per game, hinting at potential corner opportunities. With their defensive struggles allowing 2.6 goals on average to opponents, expect Lecce to capitalize, leading to more corner kicks. Given Lecce's home advantage and Monza's need to chase the game, the over 7.5 corners looks like a solid play in this tactical matchup.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When Vancouver Whitecaps host Austin FC, the matchup leans heavily in favor of Austin, particularly with a 4.5 handicap. The Whitecaps have shown inconsistency at home, boasting a 3-2-0 record against Austin over their last five meetings. Meanwhile, Austin has been resilient, despite a challenging away form, averaging just 0.8 goals against them recently. Vancouver's recent home performances, averaging 2 goals scored while allowing 1, suggest they can put pressure on Austin's defense. However, Austin's ability to hold strong, evidenced by their 1.4 goals in recent matches, hints they could easily surpass that 4.5 mark. Given their overall form and the fact that Austin has historically performed well against Vancouver, this handicap represents an intriguing opportunity. Betting on Austin with a 4.5 cushion makes sense here, as they look to bounce back and secure vital points.
Como vs Parma: Parma +2.25 Goal Handicap (-179)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As Como gears up to host Parma, the form book paints a compelling picture favoring the away side. Despite a less-than-stellar record on the road, Parma’s recent resurgence cannot be overlooked. They face a Como squad that, while solid at home, has shown vulnerability against tougher opponents. Como boasts a decent home record of 4-1-0 in their last five, but their attacking stats tell a different story; averaging just 2.4 goals while allowing 0.8 speaks to their inconsistency. Parma, on the other hand, may struggle with scoring, but their defensive resilience has been evident, especially given Como's modest scoring. With an xG differential that favors Parma slightly edging out Como's recent xG outputs, taking Parma on a -2.25 handicap offers a tantalizing opportunity. Expect Parma to capitalize on defensive lapses and secure a win that justifies this bet.
That is the model's read on today's MLS card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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