On Sunday 13 September 2026, Chicago Fire play New England Revolution in the MLS. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 6.5 Total Corners, priced at -385 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
When the Chicago Fire host the New England Revolution, expect plenty of corner kicks as both teams have shown a propensity for attacking play. The Fire, despite struggling in their last five matches with a 1-4-0 record, maintain an average of 12.4 shots per game at home, which often leads to corners. They’ve averaged 2.4 corners in those home games, and with their tendency to push for goals, they could easily see that number rise. On the other side, the Revolution have been more successful on the road, scoring an average of 2 goals while taking a staggering 19.6 shots per game. Their attacking style, complemented by Chicago's defensive lapses, suggests that corners will come in droves. With both teams consistently pushing forward, betting on over 6.5 corners is not only reasonable but likely, given the statistics and trends at play.
Mamadou Fofana (New England Revolution) Over 0.5 Shots (+115)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
In the exciting clash between Chicago Fire and New England Revolution, Mamadou Fofana presents a compelling opportunity for the Over 0.5 shots market. Despite an average of just 0.4 shots overall in his last five outings, Fofana's form away from home tells a different story, with an uptick to 0.6 shots per game. While his recent shot accuracy may need polishing, the context is crucial here; he’s been consistently finding chances on the road, hitting over this line in 2 of his last 3 away games. With the Revolution's defense sometimes vulnerable, Fofana could exploit gaps and increase his involvement. The model sees a slight edge with an implied probability just over 46%, suggesting that the value is there to take a punt on him breaking through for at least one shot. In this matchup, Fofana is positioned to make his mark—let's back him to do just that.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-149)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As the Chicago Fire host the New England Revolution, the stage is set for a potential low-scoring affair. Chicago’s recent home form has been shaky, averaging just 1.6 goals while allowing 1.4. Their last five outings show a clear trend: they’ve struggled to convert chances, with a concerning average xG of zero. Meanwhile, New England, despite boasting a solid away record, has also seen their scoring dip, averaging just 2 goals across their last five matches. Both teams share a common theme of underwhelming attacking output, with Chicago's home matches and New England's away games revealing a pattern of defensive resilience. With the total goals line set at 3.5, it’s hard to envision a scenario where both teams break through that barrier. The data leans heavily toward a gritty, tactical battle, making the under an intriguing bet worth considering.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-370)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
When the Chicago Fire host the New England Revolution, the trend points to a tightly contested affair. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net recently, with the Fire averaging just two goals across their last five matches and their xG suggesting even less. The Revolution, while managing to score a couple per game, also face a formidable challenge against a Fire defense that's been surprisingly resilient at home. Both sides are averaging under 1.5 goals per game from their last encounters against one another, which hints at a pattern of low-scoring matches. Additionally, with Chicago’s home games yielding an average of 1.4 goals for opponents and New England’s solid away defensive record, it’s hard to envision this matchup breaking the 4.5 goal threshold. Expect a tactical battle, making the under a savvy play here.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-149)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As the Chicago Fire prepare to face the New England Revolution, the trends suggest a tightly contested affair with limited scoring. Chicago has been struggling offensively at home, averaging just 1.6 goals in their last five home matches, while their defense has allowed only 1.4 goals. Their xG numbers reflect a similar theme; both teams have struggled to create clear-cut chances lately, with neither side hitting their expected goals in recent outings. On the other hand, the Revolution's away form shows they’ve scored an average of 2 goals, but against a Fire team that typically keeps it tight, we can expect a more defensive battle. With both teams averaging around 12 shots per game but lacking real clinical edge, betting on under 3.5 goals seems like a smart play in what could be a strategic, low-scoring showdown.
That is how our model reads Chicago Fire v New England Revolution. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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