Here are our AFL picks for Friday 21 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Collingwood Magpies Win, priced at +208 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Collingwood Magpies Win (+208)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Collingwood Magpies are looking like a smart bet in the upcoming clash against the Brisbane Lions at the iconic MCG. In their last five home games, the Magpies have been solid, averaging a margin of 11.6 points and conceding only 73.6 points on average. Their midfield dominance is evident, with an average of 34.4 total clearances and 118.6 contested possessions per game. They know how to convert their opportunities too, with an average of 26.6 shots at goal and 12.6 goals per game. On the flip side, the Lions have struggled on the road, allowing an average of 93.6 points against and turning over the ball 66.6 times per game. With a strong home record and the Lions' away woes, backing the Magpies to snag the win seems like a prudent move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at the SCG promises to be a riveting encounter, especially when we delve into the recent form of both teams. The Swans have been a force to be reckoned with at home, boasting an average of 63.6 Inside50s and 34.6 Shotsatgoal in their last five home games. However, their Q1 Team Totals have hovered around 18, making the Under 22.5 line seem enticing. On the other hand, the Kangaroos have been relatively sturdy on the road, conceding an average of just 74.4 points in their last five away games. With the Swans' scoring potentially tempered by the Kangaroos' defensive resilience, betting on the Under for Sydney's Q1 Team Totals could be a strategic move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Carlton Blues are set to ignite Marvel Stadium against the Fremantle Dockers in what promises to be a tantalizing clash. The Blues have been a force to be reckoned with at home, boasting an average margin of 17.2 points over their last five games. Their offensive prowess has been on full display, averaging 99.6 points per game during this stretch, while maintaining a solid defensive line conceding just 80.8 points on average. Meanwhile, the Dockers, despite their recent strong away form with a 29.4 average margin, might find it challenging against Carlton's strong clearance game, averaging 41.6 total clearances at home. With the Blues' ability to dominate the inside 50s and generate scoring opportunities, backed by a sturdy defense, the odds seem to favor Carlton snagging a crucial win on their home turf.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 42.5 team_totals_h1 (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Get ready to dive into a footy showdown that's set to keep fans on the edge of their seats! The Carlton Blues are gearing up to take on the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium, and the betting landscape is buzzing with anticipation. In this clash, the data dance points towards a tantalizing bet on the Blues to come in under 42.5 points in the first half. Why, you ask? Well, let's unpack those recent trends. Carlton has been averaging around 55.2 Inside50s and 30.4 Shotsatgoal in their last five games, but facing Fremantle's solid defense, conceding just 70.6 points overall, might put a damper on the Blues' scoring spree. With the Dockers tightening the screws on their rivals, the stage is set for a gritty, low-scoring affair. So, expect the Blues to face some hurdles in their quest to light up the scoreboard early on. It's a bet that could make your heart race as every kick, mark, and tackle could sway the outcome!
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Collingwood Magpies clash with the Brisbane Lions at the hallowed MCG, expect a strategic battle unfolding. The Magpies, known for their defensive prowess, have been holding opponents to an average of just 85.2 points in their last five games at home. Their disciplined backline and ability to restrict inside 50 entries to an average of 51 per game make scoring against them a tough task. On the flip side, the Lions have been stingy on the road, conceding just 77.4 points per game overall. With the Magpies averaging 12.6 goals in their recent home outings, the under on Collingwood's first-half team total of 40.5 seems enticing. The data suggests a low-scoring affair, making the under a compelling play in this Friday night showdown.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Folks, when it comes to Friday night footy at the MCG, all eyes are on the clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions. The Magpies, known for their gritty defense and strategic play, are up against the Lions who've been hungry for points on the road lately. Looking at the numbers, Collingwood has been averaging around 85 points in their last five games, while the Lions have been solid defensively, holding opponents to just 77.4 points overall. With the Magpies' home field advantage and the Lions' stingy defense on the road, the Under 20.5 for Collingwood's Q1 team total seems like a smart play. Expect a tight, low-scoring quarter as these teams battle it out under the bright lights of the Melbourne night.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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